The month of November has brought us S&P 6,000! President Trump has won a “Red Sweep” (as we expected all year) and has ushered in a regime change in America. For now, we are open to chasing momentum. However, the biggest risk to…
This week, we update our Central Bank Monitors (CBMs), that help us calibrate how monetary policy should be adjusted in developed-market economies. Our conclusion is that while overall, easier monetary settings are required, there a…
Our Global Investment Strategy colleagues believe trade tensions will offset the pro-business parts of the Trump administration’s agenda. They raised their 12-month recession probability to 75%. The recent rise in bond…
The US dollar steamrolled its peers since early October. After breaking out above its 200-day moving average, it is now fast approaching recent highs. Multiple factors drove this rally, among them are the stronger-than-expected…
The force of the post-election momentum leads us to believe we could be stopped out of our defensive positioning before the week is out, but we still believe in our recession call. If we are eventually stopped out, we will seek a…
The preliminary November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index beat expectations, rising to 73 from 70.5 a month prior. Expectations drove the increase, jumping to 78.5 from 74.1, while current conditions worsened by 0.…
As highlighted recently, we do not think China’s announced stimulus measures will be enough to stave off deflation (see Today’s Pick). To lift China’s economy, Beijing must unveil large fiscal transfers to…
This Strategy Insight presents our view on today’s rate cut by the Bank of England as well as the budget announced by the UK government last week.