Executive Summary Political Uncertainty And The Dollar The consensus is that Republicans will blow out the budget deficit, leading to a higher fiscal risk premium on the dollar. That seems unlikely for now. If the deficit…
After fueling the USD rally, price action from the past few weeks suggests Treasury yields might limit US equities’ upside. Following the post-COVID inflation, stocks and bond yields were negatively correlated,…
Flash PMIs for November extended recent global growth trends. US growth is holding up despite an ailing manufacturing sector, while the rest of the world shows deteriorating weak growth. The US composite beat expectations and…
The November Philly Fed manufacturing survey missed expectations and fell to -5.5 vs. 10.3 in October. New orders and shipments softened although they still indicate growth. Most indicators of current activity decreased, while…
Our US Equity strategists investigated the underperformance of the Green and Clean (G&C) investment theme, in the context of an incoming US administration expected to be less friendly towards green initiatives. The G…
Our US bond strategists expect yields to remain volatile, and do not have confidence that yields have peaked yet. The transition period to a new US administration introduces headline risks on where fiscal policy is headed. …
UK inflation was hotter than expected in October, rising to 0.6% m/m from being flat in September. Core inflation also ticked up, printing at 3.3% y/y vs. 3.2% a month prior. Services inflation remains elevated at 5.0% y/y.…
Canadian inflation was slightly hotter than expected in October, re-accelerating to 2.0% y/y from 1.6% in September. The BoC’s favored core measures, median and trim, re-accelerated to 2.5% and 2.6% respectively, and CPI-…
Housing activity data missed expectations and decreased in October. Building permits came out at 1.416m vs. 1.428m in September, and housing starts decreased from 1.354m in September to 1.311m. Units under construction keep…
Our Global Investment Strategy team examined the risk of a fiscal crisis amid rising global debt levels. Stabilizing the US debt-to-GDP ratio would require a nearly 4% GDP improvement in the primary budget balance at…