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Developed Countries

The October 2022 Big Bank Beige Book
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service the biggest banks’ commentary validates their view that a recession has not yet begun and will not begin before late 2023. Except at the lowest end of the income and wealth distributions, consumers…
Daily Insights
Shades Of Gridlock: Risk Of US Debt Default

The midterm election will bring some relief from US policy uncertainty. But this relief will be short-lived unless Republicans win the Senate, which is still too close to call. Global policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk will remain high.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
The Big Bank Beige Book, October 2022

On their third quarter earnings calls, the largest banks indicated that their household and business customers remain in surprisingly robust shape. We interpret their observations as supporting our constructive near-term take on the economy and financial markets.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
Canadian Retail Sales Return To Positive Monthly Growth In August
Retail sales in Canada grew by a stronger-than-expected 0.7% m/m in August, following a 2.2% contraction in the prior month. In particular, food & beverage store sales led the increase, expanding 2.4%. Most encouragingly, sales in volume terms rose by…
Daily Insights
Beige Book, GDPNow, Suggest Improvement In Economic Conditions
The October Fed Beige Book signaled a “modest” rise in economic growth, an improvement from the previous releases’ “unchanged” economic conditions. Notably, travel and tourism rose strongly and manufacturing activity either held steady or expanded in most of…
Daily Insights
Eurozone Household Morale Remains Depressed
The October flash release of the European Commission’s Eurozone consumer confidence suggests that household sentiment remains exceptionally weak. Although the index unexpectedly ticked up from -28.8 to -27.6, it remains near September’s record low – beneath…
Daily Insights
Which Way Is The Aussie Dollar Heading?
The Aussie dollar has been among the worst performing G10 currencies in recent weeks. It has weakened by 2.1% since the DXY’s most recent high on September 28. This latest bout of weakness reflects the impact of the RBA’s smaller-than-anticipated rate hike…
Daily Insights
Will The Fed’s Balance Sheet Shrinkage Lead To Inadvertent “Overtightening”?
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy & Global Fixed Income Strategy services conclude that on its own, the Fed’s shrinking balance sheet is not likely to lead to an inadvertent “overtightening” in monetary policy. The team revisits the…
Daily Insights
A Plaza Accord 2.0? Don’t Bet On It Yet

Is a Plaza Accord 2.0 necessary? If so, why? If not, what could stem the rise in the dollar, or will it continue to overshoot? In our view, there are fundamental reasons not to bet on a new accord, but that does not necessarily help with investment strategy.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
US LEI Consistent With Heightened Recession Risk
The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined by a larger-than-expected 0.4% m/m in September. However, the August reading was revised up from -0.3% to 0%.  On a year-on-year basis, the index is now contracting by 1.45%. According to…
Daily Insights

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