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Developed Countries

Tug-Of-War

In response to lower energy prices and China’s reopening, European assets prices are outperforming. Will the ECB spoil the party?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Europe: Recession Averted?
German and UK GDP releases provided a better-than-anticipated assessment of recent economic conditions in Europe. In Germany, GDP growth slowed from 2.6% in 2021 to 1.9% in 2022, beating estimates of 1.8%. In particular, the 4.6% increase in consumption…
Daily Insights
Easing Price Pressures Boost Consumer Morale
Preliminary results from the University of Michigan survey suggest that consumer sentiment firmed sharply in January. The overall index increased from 59.7 to 64.6, the highest since April and largely beating expectations of 60.7. Notably, the current…
Daily Insights
On The Outlook For US Banks
Several large diversified US banks reported higher-than-expected Q4 earnings on Friday, partly aided by the tailwind from higher interest rates on banks’ net interest income. Other sources of banks’ income include investment banking and trading revenues. In…
Daily Insights
The Dollar And Global Growth: Goldilocks?

In this week’s report, we look at whether global growth conditions remain conducive for a continued decline in the dollar. Our findings are mixed, while there are some economic green shoots, the overall growth picture remains weak. This argues for some consolidation of dollar losses in the near term.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
The Housing Downturn: Could This Time Be Different?

While the housing downturn will be fairly mild in the US, it will be more severe abroad. Continue to favor bonds of countries whose housing fundamentals will limit rate hikes.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
US CPI Inflation Continues to Slow in December
US headline CPI inflation eased from 7.1% y/y (0.1% m/m) to 6.5% y/y (-0.1% m/m) in December, in line with consensus estimates. Lower energy prices (-4.5% m/m) drove the bulk of the deceleration in headline CPI. Core CPI also moderated from 6.0% y/y (0.2%…
Daily Insights
The Beveridge Curve Will Determine Whether The US Goes Into Recession
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the ‘Beveridge Curve’ is the most important chart of 2023. The chart plots the tight inverse relationship between job vacancies and unemployment. It is important because many economists argue that the very…
Daily Insights
The Most Important Chart Of 2023, Updated

The crucial question for 2023 is: will the US and UK Beveridge Curves shift back inwards to their pre-pandemic versions, ushering in a soft landing? Or, will we slide down the new post-pandemic Beveridge Curves into recession? Plus: we reveal the most important chart for Europe and the most important chart for China in early 2023.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
The Immaculate Disinflation

The Fed will respond to December’s CPI report by downshifting to a 25 bps hike pace next month. We anticipate two more 25 bps hikes before the Fed goes on hold.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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