Developed Countries
Given that banks are the cause of the recent market turmoil, it is unsurprising that financials are the worst performing sector since the start of the tumult earlier this month. Yet, the equity weakness has been broad-based across most US and global equity…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy & Global Fixed Income Strategy services, there are a few shifts that could be immediately expected with an end to the BoJ’s Yield Curve Control (YCC) program. First, the outperformance of stocks…
The Russia-Ukraine war has prompted Europe to ramp up its defense spending. This will greatly benefit its defense industry, especially if defense coordination across the EU increases.
The Bank of Japan is about to get new leadership when Kazuo Ueda takes over as governor in April. Will there be a new monetary policy to go along with the new governor? We attempt to answer that question, and what that means for global bond markets and the yen, in this Special Report.
Preliminary results from the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey showed an unexpected drop in household morale. The headline index’s 3.6-point decline to 63.4 surprised consensus estimates it would remain unchanged. The decline came on the…
Based on FDIC data, US banks with less than $250 billion in assets account for about half of C&I lending, and over half of mortgage and commercial real estate lending. As such, the turmoil in the banking sector will inevitably weigh on economic activity.…
The banking tumult is shining light on the impact of the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle. In the one year since the FOMC’s first rate hike last March, the fed funds rate has increased by a massive 450 basis points, making the current tightening cycle one of…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the odds of a policy mistake whereby the ECB pushes interest rates to 4% or more have melted. On a near-term basis, the Credit Suisse saga will continue to weigh on the euro. The ECB will…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service concludes that while the Fed’s hiking cycle is close to its peak, there will not be rate cuts anytime soon The team’s view remains that the Treasury market response to recent banking turmoil is overdone. Depending…
Depending on market volatility during the next few trading days, the Fed will either lift rates by 25 bps next week or pause its tightening cycle. Either way, the Fed’s hiking cycle is close to its peak but rate cuts won’t be coming anytime soon.