Developed Countries
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) – a summary statistic of all the important US economic data releases over the month – disappointed on Thursday. It fell from 0.23 to -0.19 in February, below expectations of a more muted decline to 0.10.…
As expected, the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and Norges Bank all delivered rate hikes at their Thursday meetings, lifting interest rates by 25bps, 50bps, and 25bps respectively. In the case of the BoE, the Financial Policy Committee’s assessment…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service emergency executive actions to stabilize the financial system will conversely lead to higher political risk and more dangerous brinksmanship in Congress, The Republican Party and Republican…
The Fed lifted rates 25 bps yesterday while also signaling that the tightening cycle is near its peak. We discuss the short-run and long-run implications for Treasury yields.
US financial instability reinforces our bearish investment outlook by weighing on economic growth and corporate earnings while also increasing US policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk.
Have global equity markets reached a riot point? Is the Fed going on hold a sufficient condition for stocks to stage a cyclical rally? If not, what would be needed to produce such a rally? Does the Fed’s recent balance sheet expansion foreshadow a rise in the US money supply? This report provides answers to all these questions.
UK inflation was hotter-than-anticipated in February. Headline CPI inflation accelerated from 10.1% y/y to 10.4% y/y – surprising consensus estimates it would slow to 9.9% y/y. The monthly rate increased to 1.1% m/m, following a 0.6% m/m decline in January…
The Bank of Canada’s summary of the discussions by Governing Council members ahead of its March 8 decision to stand pat produced a dovish signal on Wednesday. Although policymakers highlighted that “the economy remained in excess demand” and “the labor market…
The Fed hiked rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and made some important changes to its official forward interest rate guidance. Modifications to the policy statement signal that the Fed’s tightening cycle is close to its peak. Specifically, “the…
Some quick takes from today’s FOMC meeting.