Developed Countries
European real GDP growth is stabilizing, so why would European equities continue to trade sideways for the remainder of the year? The answer lies with nominal growth and its impact on earnings.
Inspired by a client’s questions, we examine the rationale behind the implementation of the trailing stop governing our near-term asset allocation recommendations.
The preliminary release of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey shows US households’ 1-year ahead inflation expectations unexpectedly ticked down from 3.4% to 3.3% in August, surprising consensus estimates of an increase to 3.5%. Similarly,…
While the July US CPI release provided a positive signal that the disinflationary trend remains intact, a key question going forward is how much more scope is there for this process to run. One way to answer this question is by assessing the progress in…
Thursday’s US CPI release showed that the disinflation trend remains intact with the monthly print remaining soft at 0.2% m/m, slightly lower than expected. The SPY initially rallied on the downside inflation surprise but quickly reversed its gains…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, the gap that has formed between the S&P 500 price and its operating profit margins, as well as the divergence between the S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio and the 30-year TIPS yield are…
As expected, the US CPI release shows the monthly headline and core inflation gauges were both unchanged at 0.2% m/m in July. Notably, annualized monthly core inflation fell below 2% for the second consecutive month. Similarly, the annual change in core CPI…
The rise in bond yields over the past few weeks has made some investors wonder whether US Treasurys and other government bonds really are a good hedge against recession. Could there be an environment in which the economy goes into recession but bond yields…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, gold’s appeal as a safe haven and store of value will increase as fiscal dominance overtakes monetary dominance at the Fed. Fitch’s downgrade of US debt from AAA to AA+ hit markets as the…
Some thoughts on this morning’s inflation number and implications for Treasury yields and TIPS.