The outperformance of European small caps is coming to an end. Our Chart Of The Week comes from our European Investment Strategy team.The team identifies several headwinds for small caps in Europe in the near term. Small caps’…
Tokyo CPI surprised to the upside in April, signaling that Japanese inflation shows no sign of deceleration and putting the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in a complicated position. Investors should remain maximum underweight in JGBs and…
The rebound in UK retail sales and consumer confidence surprised to the upside, and suggests that the re-acceleration in inflation observed earlier this week may not be transitory. UK retail sales rose 1.2% m/m in April…
President Trump’s signature bill is surprising to the upside with budget deficits, as predicted by our Geopolitical Strategists. Some form of the bill is guaranteed to pass, no matter how many tries it takes. The bill…
Last Friday, President Trump announced new 50% tariffs on imported goods from the European Union (EU), effective June 1st, and threatened US company Apple with 25% tariffs unless it made iPhones in the US. Global stock markets…
Business sentiment improved slightly in May, corroborating the message from other soft-data indicators of Eurozone business activity, which remain weak but are not plummeting. The increase in the future expectations index to 88.…
European corporate bond spreads have more room to narrow in the near term, but their next big leg is up. After a significant widening in option-adjusted spreads caused by stagflation fears in the US and “Liberation Day,”…
May PMIs confirm the improvement in confidence due to fewer concerns about US tariffs. Manufacturing flash PMI numbers showed resilience. The services activity PMI is more of a mixed bag.The US composite index beat estimates,…
Right now, the major stock and bond markets are more ‘anti-fragile’ than fragile, and the Joshi rule recession indicators signal that a US recession is not imminent. This justifies a neutral, or default, tactical weighting to both…
Japan’s export growth slowed materially in April as shipments to the US, Japan’s largest export destination, fell 1.8% from a year earlier. Japan has yet to make a trade deal with the US. Japanese export growth slowed to 2% from…