Developed Countries

European central banks are pivoting quickly amid deflationary pressure, reinforcing our long UK Gilts and short GBP trades. The Norges Bank surprised with a 25 bps cut to 4.25%, abandoning its hawkish stance. The Swiss National Bank cut by 25 bps to 0%, in…

Our Geopolitical strategists expect US involvement in Israel’s military campaign against Iran, raising near-term risks to oil supply and market stability. Iran is likely to retaliate by targeting regional oil production and transport infrastructure,…

UK disinflation and labor market softening support our overweight in Gilts and short GBP trade. UK CPI came in slightly hotter than expected in May, with headline inflation at 3.4% y/y (vs. 3.5% in April) and core CPI meeting expectations at 3.5%, down from…

1 Tactical SEK Bearishness Backed By Dovish Riksbank …

1 Fed Split On 2025 Cuts, But Cooling Data Supports Dovish Case …

1 BoJ: A Balanced Pause …

1 US Retail Worries …

ZEW expectations jumped in May, but underlying macro fragility supports a cautious stance on eurozone assets. The ZEW expectations index for the euro area rose to 35.3 from 11.6, with Germany also beating expectations. The current situation component improved…

1 The Swiss Illusion: Strong Fundamentals, Weak Momentum …

Worsening manufacturing data reinforces our defensive stance as expectations rebound but observed activity continues to deteriorate. The June Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell to -16.0 from -9.2, well below estimates. Expectations rebounded, but the…