Demography
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The Number Of Babies Born In China Has Fallen By Close To 30% Since 2019
The Number Of Babies Born In China Has Fallen By Close To 30% Since 2019…
Executive Summary The unemployment rate in the US stands at 3.6%, 0.4 percentage points below the FOMC’s estimate of full employment. Historically, the Fed’s efforts to nudge up the unemployment rate have failed: The US has never averted a recession when the 3-month average of the…
Executive Summary Investors Think The Fed Will Not Be Able To Raise Rates Much Above 2%
Is A Higher Neutral Rate Good Or Bad For Stocks…
Executive Summary The Market Thinks The Fed Will Be Unable To Raise Rates Much Above 2%
The Market Thinks The Fed Will Be Unable To Raise Rates Much Above 2…
Highlights The neutral rate of interest in the US is 3%-to-4% in nominal terms or 1%-to-2% in real terms, which is substantially higher than the Fed believes and the market is discounting. The end of the household deleveraging cycle, rising wealth, stronger capital spending and homebuilding,…
Dear Client, We are sending you our Strategy Outlook today where we outline our thoughts on the global economy and the direction of financial markets for 2022 and beyond. Next week, please join me for a webcast on Friday, December 10th at 10:00 AM EST (3:00 PM GMT, 4:00 PM CET, 11:00 PM HKT) to…
Dear Client, I will be on vacation next week. In lieu of our regular report, we will be sending you a Special Report written by my colleagues Chester Ntonifor, BCA Research’s Chief Foreign Exchange Strategist, and Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical Strategist. Their report discusses the threat to…
Highlights Investors should view social media as a technological innovation with negative productivity growth. Social media has contributed to policy mistakes – such as fiscal austerity and protectionism – that have acted as shocks to aggregate demand over the past 15 years. The cyclical…
Dear Client, Next week, instead of our regular report, we will be sending you a Special Report from BCA Research’s MacroQuant tactical global asset allocation team. Titled “MacroQuant: A Quantitative Solution For Forecasting Macro-Driven Financial Trends,” this white paper will discuss the…
Highlights China’s Communist Party has overcome a range of challenges over the past 100 years, performed especially well over the past 42 years, but the macro and geopolitical outlook is darkening. The “East Asian miracle” phase of Chinese growth has ended. Potential GDP growth is slowing and…