Over the next few months, Japan’s new government will ease fiscal policy, which will improve domestic demand on the margin. Monetary policy may tighten further in the short run but not too much over the long run. The geopolitical…
In this report, we discuss why we are lifting our US recession probability from 60% to 65% and explain why China’s latest stimulus announcements are welcome, but probably are “too little, too late.”
US housing starts and building permits eased below expectations in September. Permits, a proxy for future construction, dropped 2.9% after rising 4.6% in August. New construction fell 0.5% after rising 7.8% a month prior. These…
BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service introduced a Global Political Capital Index. Investors should favor countries with newly elected government, small government size, and ample room to cut policy rate. Ideally,…
According to BCA Research’s Private Markets & Alternatives service, the Sports Franchise market presents a compelling opportunity for Private Equity due to its strong growth potential, evolving business models, and…
Don't buy the dip. The equity bull market is over. The US will enter a recession in late 2024 or in early 2025.
1 in 17 older Americans workers have gone missing either through ‘excess retirements’ or ‘excess mortality’. The consequent dislocation of the labour market means that the Fed’s work is not yet done. We go through some investment…
Canada’s headline CPI inflation decelerated in April from 2.9% y/y to 2.7% y/y. Notably, core median CPI eased from 2.9% y/y to a softer-than-anticipated 2.6% y/y and core trimmed-mean CPI ticked lower from 3.2% to 2.9…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, US politics this decade will follow three strategic themes for the decade: (1) generational change, (2) peak polarization, (3) limited big government.…