Highlights U.S. fiscal stimulus will be priced back into markets; Northeast Asia is consumed with domestic politics for now; China's financial crackdown raises risks, but so far looks contained; South Korea's relief rally…

Special Report

Dear Client, I am travelling in Asia talking to investors and doing some field research. As such, there will be no CIS report next week. The next report will be sent to you on May 5th. Best regards, Yan Wang, Senior Vice President…

Highlights We discuss three "battles" that will shape the investment landscape in the euro area over the remainder of the decade. Battle #1: Reflation Versus Deleveraging - Reflation will triumph over the next 12 months. For…

Highlights Despite our tactical bullish stance, the cyclical outlook remains firmly negative for the yen, with a 12-month target for USD/JPY above 120. The BoJ is currently committed to an inflation overshoot, with this solid…

Highlights U.S. policy uncertainty has increased again early in the New Year. President Trump's inaugural speech highlighted that he has not tempered his "America First" policy prescription. The Trump/GOP agenda is still…

Highlights The uptrend in consumer confidence has the potential to be lasting, and therefore lead to an acceleration in real consumption over the next several quarters. In contrast, the rise in business optimism is thus far built on…

Special Report

The fundamental reason behind the debt buildup in the Chinese economy is rooted in its high savings and banking-centric intermediation system. It is wrong to focus solely on the liability side of the economy. Viewed from a balance…

Special Report

In this Special Report, we revisit our list of signpost economic indicators introduced two years ago to identify if the U.S. and Euro Area were falling into a "Secular Stagnation".

Special Report

The end of the Debt Supercycle will be a key theme influencing economic and financial trends for many years to come. Its hallmark will remain the inability of central banks to engineer a new credit cycle, despite extremely low…

Global trade is plummeting as commodity prices remain depressed and emerging markets unravel. Even if oil were not plumbing new lows, we would remain bearish on EM economies, where poor governance and low efficiency suggest that more…