This week’s report looks at the banking crisis within the context of shrinking dollar liquidity and implication for FX markets.

In this Special Report, BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Fixed Income Strategy teams argue that as the lagged impact of higher interest rates hits the Canadian economy, what will initially appear as a potential hard landing…

Special Report

Global investors should sell Chinese assets on strength this year and diversify into other emerging markets. American investors should limit China exposure. Short CNY-USD.

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out next year and beyond.

Special Report

Long-term deflationary forces in Japan are weakening, setting the stage for inflation to make a comeback over the remainder of the decade. Investors should prepare to structurally reduce exposure to Japanese bonds starting early next…

Is the BoE’s emergency intervention in its bond market a British idiosyncrasy that global investors can ignore? No, the UK’s near death experience sends three salutary warnings, with implications for all investors.

Executive Summary The unemployment rate in the US stands at 3.6%, 0.4 percentage points below the FOMC’s estimate of full employment. Historically, the Fed’s efforts to nudge up the unemployment rate have failed: The US…

Executive Summary Equities Are Still Attractive Versus Bonds  Macroeconomic Outlook: Global growth will reaccelerate in the second half of this year provided a ceasefire in Ukraine is reached. Inflation will temporarily come…

Special Report

Highlights There is no evidence of a decline in US corporate credit or bank lending spreads over the past few decades, meaning that any excess savings effect structurally depressing interest rates is occurring in the Treasury market. We…

Executive Summary Investors Think The Fed Will Not Be Able To Raise Rates Much Above 2%  The neutral rate of interest is 3%-to-4% in the United States. This is substantially higher than the market estimate of around 2%. It…