Executive Summary Hopes of an imminent peace deal between Russia and Ukraine will be dashed. The conflict will worsen over the coming days. As was the case during the original Cold War, both sides will eventually forge an…
Markets have shrugged off the rise in COVID-19 cases in the US and new clusters in other places such as Spain, Hong Kong, Melbourne, and Tokyo (Chart 1). The MSCI All-Country World Index is now only 4% off its all-time high in…
Highlights Historically, when global growth picks up, the yen weakens. But this is less likely in an environment where global yields remain anchored at low levels. Meanwhile, there is rising risk that consumption in Japan will remain…
Highlights German bunds and Swiss bonds are no longer haven assets. The haven assets are the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and US T-bonds. Gold is less effective as a haven asset. During this year’s coronavirus crash, the gold…
Highlights Extreme global economic uncertainty has pushed demand for USD higher, and forced investors to liquidate gold holdings to raise cash for margin calls and to provide precautionary balances. Gold endured a succession of down…
Highlights Recommended Allocation The outlook for markets over the next few months is highly uncertain. On the optimistic side, new COVID-19 cases are probably close to peaking (for now), and so equities could continue to…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy We have identified 20 reasons to start buying equities. We highlight positive catalysts that should underpin the equity market as the pandemic progresses. Investors with higher risk tolerance should…
Highlights Financial markets are in a state of upheaval, and no one knows where or when they’ll bottom: We reiterate that it’s too early to dive back into equities or spread product. The policy path is not nearly as clear…