The Fed's statement underscored its 'go slow' approach, with a June hike increasingly unlikely, but September and December still in play. The BoJ stood pat, reluctant to admit that NIRP was a flop soon after it was launched.…

Special Report

Several tail risks appear less ominous compared to last month. Nonetheless, the earnings outlook has not improved and the FOMC will turn more hawkish ahead of the June meeting. Stay defensively positioned.

The Fed's recent dovishness represents an acknowledgement of the feedback loop between Fed policy and financial conditions. Expect Fed hawkishness to ramp back up prior to the next rate hike, likely in June.

The Fed's recent dovishness represents an acknowledgement of the feedback loop between Fed policy and financial conditions. Expect Fed hawkishness to ramp back up prior to the next rate hike, likely in June.

The recent rebound is not a harbinger of a prolonged recovery in risk assets. The many potential negatives will keep volatility high and trigger further occasional selloffs.

For the month of February, the model underperformed both global and U.S. equities. For March, the model has modestly pared back its equity risk exposure, shifting the allocation into bonds. While Europe remains the largest equity…

A near-term rally in risk assets now appears very likely. But we expect it to be cut short when the Fed eventually reacts to easier financial conditions by returning to a more hawkish policy stance. Investors should maintain a…

Somewhat like 1998, the dilemma for the Fed is that the labor market is approaching full employment and may justify eventual interest rate hikes.

Any recovery in risk assets and selloff in safe havens is unlikely to extend into the cyclical horizon.

The U.S. corporate re-leveraging cycle is far more advanced than is widely believed. Corporate health looks only mildly better excluding the troubled energy and materials sectors. Mushrooming leverage ratios are not restricted to…