A Spanish bull, a euro bull, and an equity bear.

There is a risk that global bond yields move higher in the near term, although we prefer to position for that move via cross-market spread, yield curve and inflation trades.

Markets will remain stuck in a trading range, driven by two policy feedback loops: the Fed's and China's.

Investors have embraced renewed Fed hawkishness as a vote of economic confidence and confirmation of analysts' rosy earnings forecasts, but the bounce in financials looks unsustainable, outside of REITs. Hang on to gold shares.

Special Report

While it is impossible to time the stock market, even a system whose results are slightly better than a coin-flip can still generate significant alpha. Overweight equities when valuations are favorable, growth is advancing, and…

For the month of May, the model underperformed both global equities and the S&P 500. For the month of June, the model is further paring back its risk exposure.

This month's Special Report reviews the literature on equity market timing, and identifies the key indicators that historically have had the best track record. We then aggregate the indicators into an overall scorecard that should…

The next rate hike is unlikely before September, despite the rebound in April retail sales. The dollar could suffer for a time, but the long-term bull market is intact.

The reflation rally continues. Despite our bearish outlook for the year, we think the risks of the current rally lie to the upside given China's redoubling of stimulus at the expense of reform. Populist troubles are picking up in…

For the month of April, the model's performance was in line with the S&P 500, but lagged global equities. For May, the model is aggressively paring back its equity risk exposure. Both Europe and Emerging Markets were downgraded,…