Chair Janet Yellen's comments at Jackson Hole reinforce our view that a Fed rate hike is highly unlikely until December. The risk is that overbought equity and junk bond markets correct as an oversold dollar prices in a December move…
In August, the model outperformed the S&P 500 and global equities in both USD and local-currency terms. For September, the model increased its allocation to cash and trimmed its exposure to equities.
Investors are being forced into riskier asset classes by the TINA effect, but the gaping macro disequilibria makes it difficult for investors to see how we move back to equilibrium in a benign way. Monetary policy on its own is…
The lack of inflation makes a Fed rate hike before December unlikely. In the interim, the continued flow of liquidity could sustain the high-risk rally.
Yield and Protector Portfolios should continue to benefit in current environment. Equities face seasonal headwinds.
For the month of June, the model performed in line with both global equities and the S&P 500. For the month of July, the model is increasing its risk exposure.
The Brexit vote will either usher in the complete dissolution of the euro area, or it will prove to be a blessing in disguise. Our bet is the latter, but the next few months are still likely to see heightened political uncertainty…
Post-Brexit uncertainty will continue for some time. But we were already cautiously positioned, and would not go any more defensive.
Equity and Treasury market positioning support the notion of a bounce in risk assets, possibly egged on by dollar weakness.