Defensive/Risk
Highlights Recommendation Allocation
Quarterly - October 2017…
Highlights The Fed will shrink its balance and is determined to raise rates. Implications of synchronized global growth and global NAIRU. Consumers are upbeat and ready to spend. What's the signal from record high consumer expectations for equities? Feature Risk assets and Treasury yields…
Highlights Washington must establish a "credible threat" if it is to convince Pyongyang that negotiations offer the superior outcome; The process of establishing such a credible threat is volatile; U.S. Treasurys, along with Swiss and Japanese government bonds have been consistent safe haven…
Highlights The rise in the yen sparked by the verbal confrontation between the U.S. and North Korea is creating an opportunity to buy USD/JPY. The DXY is set to stabilize and may even rebound, removing a key support for the yen. The U.S. economy is showing signs of strength, and the bond…
Feature We begin this short Special Report with three statements. Decide whether you agree or disagree with them: Equity market advances tend to be gradual and gentle, whereas sell-offs are sudden and sharp. Investors use the observed volatility of an investment as a gauge of its riskiness…
Highlights The risk asset friendly outcomes in the French and South Korean elections are the latest examples of fading geopolitical risk, and we expect that to continue over the remainder of 2017. Although it has been well over a year since the last 10% pullback, the U.S. equity market is not…
Highlights We are going long spot gold at tonight's closing price, given our view that inflation and inflation expectations will continue to move higher going into 2018. In the U.S., we expect higher fiscal spending and tax cuts hitting the economy next year to have a significant effect on an…
Feature Table 1Recommended Allocation
Monthly Portfolio Update…
Dear Client, In addition to this abbreviated Weekly Report, I sent you a Special Report earlier today written by my colleague Mark McClellan of our monthly Bank Credit Analyst publication. Following up on many of the themes discussed in our latest Quarterly Strategy Outlook, Mark makes a…
Highlights Safe-haven assets do not simply outperform equities on a relative basis during bear markets. In fact, the average return of nine safe-haven assets has been positive in every bear market since 1972. A safe haven should serve two purposes. First, it should have a negative correlation…