Special Report

Highlights In an environment where both interest rates and inflation are low but rising at a time of stretched equity valuations, what can investors do to enhance risk-adjusted portfolio returns? In this report, we investigate the…

Special Report

Dear Client, I am travelling in Europe this week visiting clients. Instead of our Weekly Report, we are sending you a Special Report written by my colleague Xiaoli Tang of BCA's Global Asset Allocation. The report examines three…

Highlights An inflation scare would initially take bond yields higher. But the higher bond yields would undermine the valuation support of global risk-assets worth several times the size of the global economy. Thereby, an inflation…

Highlights The Turkish economy is in disarray, ... : The lira's plunge has reminded some investors of the Thai baht's in 1997, but we do not foresee a replay of the Asian Crisis. ... highlighting emerging markets'…

Special Report

According to market lore, one should never say, "It's Different This Time". But every time is always different: there is a never a previous period that perfectly matches the current environment. That is why forecasting is so…

Highlights Investors are too complacent about the risks of a trade war. Standard economic models understate the potential economic damage that a trade war could cause. Global equities would suffer mightily from a trade war. Deep…

Recommended Allocation  Risks to equities and credit are now evenly balanced. We downgrade both to neutral. We are worried that desynchronized growth will further push up the dollar, damaging emerging markets, especially since U.…

Highlights Macro Outlook: Global growth is decelerating and the composition of that growth is shifting back towards the United States. Policy backdrop: The specter of trade wars represents a real and immediate threat to risk assets.…

Highlights We have been cautious on asset allocation on a tactical (3-month) horizon for two months. The backdrop has deteriorated enough that we believe that caution is now warranted beyond a tactical horizon. Trim exposure to global…

Highlights We have downgraded our 12-month recommendation on global equities and credit from overweight to neutral. If macro developments evolve as expected, then we will shift to an outright bearish stance on risk assets later this…