Debt Trends

In this report, we explore what a new BRICS+ union means for the dollar over the next 6-to-9 months.

The latest round of earnings calls from the systemically important banks suggested that the expansion is still intact. Households are still flush and still spending and consumer and business delinquencies remain remarkably low.

Falling inflation enables central banks to pause rate hikes, which is good news. But time goes on. Restrictive monetary policy, Chinese debt-deflation, energy supply shocks, US and global policy uncertainty, and extreme geopolitical risks will undermine hopes of a soft landing and beautiful disinflation.

This week’s Special Report updates our US default rate forecast and considers whether corporate bond spreads offer value given the trend in credit fundamentals. We also consider the relative value proposition between investment grade and high-yield credit and between European and US corporate bonds.