Special Report

Highlights Currency markets continue to fight a tug-of-war between deteriorating global growth and easing global financial conditions. Meanwhile, history suggests that the trade-weighted dollar should have been 10-15% higher, based on…

Highlights We would fade fears of an “earnings recession.” EPS growth should increase during the remainder of this year. While high debt burdens around the world may exacerbate deflationary pressures by restraining spending…

Special Report

Highlights The CAD and AUD have tactical upside; however, this may well prove to be the last hurrah before some serious declines play out. This time domestic – not global – factors will drive the CAD and AUD lower. Canada…

Special Report

This is the second of a two-part Special Report on the structural changes that have occurred as a result of the Great Recession and financial crisis. We look at three issues: asset correlation, the safety of the financial system, and…

Highlights Investors ran for cover in December as they succumbed to a litany of worries regarding the outlook. The key question is whether the pessimism is overdone or an extended equity bear market is underway. Our outlook for the U.…

Special Report

Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, are long-time BCA clients who visit our office toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook. This report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation. Mr. X: I have…

Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, are long-time BCA clients who visit our office toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook. This report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation. Mr. X: I have…

Highlights Investors are worrying too much about the things that caused the global financial crisis, and not enough about those that could cause the next downturn. Despite the recent patch of soft data, the U.S. housing market is in…

Highlights Set your overall investment strategy with two 'rules of 4' based on 10-year bond yields: If either the Italian BTP or the sum of the U.S. T-bond, German bund and JGB stays above 4 percent, then sell equities and buy…

Special Report

Highlights Since 2010, China's private sector has accounted for the majority of the country's increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio, most of which has been on the balance sheets of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and the household…