Special Report

In a guest research report, Martin Barnes, BCA’s former Chief Economist, revisits the idea of the Debt Supercycle and discusses how its true end may emerge in response to a fiscal crisis in the US over the coming few years.

In Section I, we review the three possible economic scenarios over the coming year, and underscore that the “soft landing” scenario remains improbable. A “no landing” scenario could occur, but it would ultimately lead back to the…

Special Report

Cyclically-speaking, the risk of global indebtedness does not appear to be acute. There are several pockets of sizeable private sector debt risk, and it is possible that the next US/global recession will cause a more pronounced economic…

Special Report

An important annual event is when long-time client Mr. X visits BCA strategists at the end of each year to talk about the economic and financial outlook and a write-up of the discussion is published as our Annual Outlook report.…

Special Report

Dear Client, Section II of this month’s Bank Credit Analyst report is a guest piece written by Martin Barnes, which we are making available to all clients. Martin, who retired from BCA Research last year after a long and illustrious…

Special Report

Having worked as an economist for close to 50 years, the current strange and uncertain environment seems a good time to look back and consider some of the lessons I have learned. An additional reason for writing this rather personal…

Highlights The post-pandemic investment phase is just a continuation of the post-credit boom investment phase. This is because the pandemic has just accelerated the pre-existing shifts to a more remote way of working, shopping and…

Highlights President Biden has called for the US intelligence community to investigate the origins of COVID-19 and one of Biden’s top diplomats has stated the obvious: the era of “engagement” with China is over. This…