DM Europe
Stay short Greater China assets. Stay long Japanese yen. Hold back on Brazil for now but look forward to opportunities in future.
Russia’s conflict with the West will escalate and trigger more bad news for risky assets this fall. Beyond that, stalemate looms. Latin American equities present a potential opportunity once the macro and geopolitical backdrop improve.
Executive Summary The US inflation surprise increases the odds of both congressional gridlock and recession, which increases uncertainty over US leadership past 2024 and reduces the US’s ability to lower tensions with China and Iran. Despite the mainstream media narrative, the Xi-…
Executive Summary Our negative view on the summer rally is coming to fruition, with equities falling back on the negative geopolitical, macro, and monetary environment. China is easing policy ahead of its full return to autocratic government this fall. Yet the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis has…
Executive Summary Italy’s right-wing alliance, led by Brothers of Italy, will likely outperform in the upcoming election. The new government will prioritize the economy, posing a risk to the EU’s united front against Russia. It is conducive to an eventual ceasefire, which is marginally…
Executive Summary China's Unemployment
Questions From The Road…
Executive Summary China: GeoRisk Indicator
China: GeoRisk Indicator…
Executive Summary EU Embargoes Russian Oil
Energy Cutoff Continues (GeoRisk Update…
Executive Summary German GeoRisk Indicator
German GeoRisk Indicator…
Executive Summary Macron Still Favored, But Le Pen Cannot Be Ruled Out
Le Pen And Other Hurdles (GeoRisk Update…