Generative AI-related rally resumed in May. Much of the recent market gains are down to excess liquidity that was begotten by the massive pandemic stimulus, creating a dichotomy between multiple economic challenges and exuberant…
US Q1 GDP was revised lower from 1.6% q/q annualized to 1.3%. Notably, the downward revision to personal consumption was higher than expected, from 2.5% q/q annualized to 2.0%. Investment and government spending were revised…
The US manufacturing cycle has followed a surprisingly stable pattern for over seven decades. History suggests that this cycle tends to last for about 36 months, with a down leg spanning 18 months, followed by an up leg…
The Conference Board measure of CEO Confidence improved slightly in Q2, from 53 to 54. A reading above 50 indicates that optimistic perceptions of business conditions outweigh pessimistic assessments. The Q2 survey result marks a…
The death of the Iranian president reinforces our base case view of Middle Eastern instability and at least minor oil supply shocks. Rapid geopolitical developments in recent weeks are pointing to a new bout of global instability.…
Export dynamics from small open economies are bellwethers for global trade and recent export data out of Taiwan and South Korea suggested robust global growth momentum in March. In April, Singapore’s electronics exports…
Health care stocks have underperformed the US broad market by over 20% since the beginning of 2023. Indeed, vaccination campaigns during the pandemic years had initially boosted health care companies’ earnings. However,…
Q1 earnings results of the largest US banks have demonstrated that the engine of recent growth in profitability, NII, has faltered as funding costs are rising fast. However, the resurgence in non-NII thanks to a revival in corporate…
Export dynamics of small open economies are a bellwether for global growth. The latest Taiwanese and Korean export numbers are consistent with a revival in global trade. Taiwanese export orders grew by 1.2% y/y in March…
UK stocks posted one of the largest positive abnormal returns (z-score) among the major financial markets we tracked in March. The MSCI UK index has gained 2% relative to Eurozone stocks since late February. However, the…