Highlights After steep climbs in November and early December both bond yields and stock prices were overdue for a pause or correction. Although the domestic economy is on reasonably sound footing, stock prices have now discounted way…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy If the Fed is about to begin interest rate re-normalization in earnest, then investors should heed the message from historic sector performance during tightening cycles. The tech sector remains…

Special Report

Highlights The brief history of our model portfolios is a tale of two regions: our global portfolios are beating their benchmarks by an aggregate 350 basis points ("bps"), while our U.S. portfolios lag by 55 bps. Defensive…

The abrupt jump in cyclical vs. defensive share price ratio appears to have been driven solely by external forces, i.e. the sell-off in the bond market, rather than a shift in underlying profit drivers. For instance, emerging markets (EM…

Special Report

Highlights Huge short-term moves have occurred in several markets in the wake of the U.S. election. From a tactical perspective, we believe the moves have gone too far, too fast. Beyond the tactical, the key question is whether or not…

Some cyclically-oriented equities have surged on the back of the Trump election victory, almost as if a few years of fiscal stimulus will arrive within the next few quarters. This knee-jerk reaction is an opportunity to fade strength,…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Retail food stocks are deep into the buy zone. Deflating food costs augur well for profit margins in the coming quarters. Lift the financial sector to neutral, via the asset manager and investment bank…

Defensive sectors, outside of health care and tech, were already making an effort to turn up prior to the surprise U.S. election result, and the latter is a probable catalyst to spark a full blown reversal back in favor of non-cyclical…

Special Report

Highlight Growth perked up in the major economies in October, and the manufacturing recession appears to have passed without event. The October employment report testified to the underlying health of the U.S. economy and clears the…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Boost restaurant stocks to neutral, as same-store sales should improve next year. A further upgrade requires evidence of top-line traction. The exodus from health care stocks represents an overreaction…