Cyclicals vs Defensives
(Part I) Put The Cyclical/Defensive Tilt On Downgrade Alert…
Capex Blues (Part 2)
Capex…
Capex Blues (Part 1)
Capex…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Intensifying recession fears, rising risks of ineffectual monetary policy, and escalating trade policy uncertainty that is shattering corporate America’s capex plans, warn that sizable drawdown risks persist in the broad U.S. equity market in the upcoming 3-12…
Highlights Global inflation will slow further, allowing central banks to ease policy. Liquidity indicators will have more upside as monetary policy will remain accommodative. Widening fiscal deficits, easing Chinese credit trends and rising U.S. consumer real income levels, all will allow…
Highlights Current activity indicators are now losing momentum, or outright rolling over. This confirms that European (and global) growth is now entering a down-oscillation. Why? It is the rate of decline in the bond yield that has driven the current up-oscillation in growth and it is…
GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of June 28, 2019. The quant model has upgraded Sweden to the second largest overweight (from a slight underweight) mainly due to sharp improvement in the liquidity indicator. This is…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The risk/reward tradeoff remains squarely to the downside and we are turning cyclically (3-12 month horizon) cautious on the prospects of the broad equity market. The Presidential cycle, UBER’s IPO, the SPX hitting all-time highs following the initial December…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The risk/reward equity market tradeoff is to the downside and we remain tactically cautious. The trade war re-escalation risks pushing out the global growth recovery to early-2020 and has shaken our confidence in our cyclically constructive equity market view. An…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Macro headwinds, deficient demand along with rising chemicals stockpiles that have dealt a blow to industry pricing power warn that chemicals stocks are on the verge of a breakdown. Downgrade to a below benchmark allocation. At the margin deteriorating domestic…