Highlights Extremely accommodative fiscal policy and a rapid pace of vaccination puts the US on track to close its output gap by the end of the year. The situation is different in Europe, and the euro area economy will likely continue…
Highlights Global manufacturing activity will soon peak due to growing costs and China’s policy tightening. This process will allow the dollar’s rebound to continue. EUR/USD’s correction will run further. This…
Dear Client, We are sending you our Strategy Outlook today, where we outline our thoughts on the macro landscape and the direction of financial markets for the rest of 2021 and beyond. Next week, please join me for a webcast on…
Highlights The Federal Reserve’s ultra-dovish stance is not the only reason for markets to cheer. The US is booming, China is unlikely to overtighten monetary and fiscal policy, and Europe remains a source of positive political…
Highlights China’s economic recovery is in a later stage than the US. A rebound in US Treasury yields is unlikely to trigger upward pressure on government bond yields in China. Imported inflation through mounting commodity and…
Dear Client, In addition to this week’s abbreviated report, we are sending you a Special Report on Bitcoin. I don’t recommend you buy it. Best regards, Peter Berezin Highlights Real government bond yields have…
Highlights Market-based geopolitical analysis is about identifying upside as well as downside risk. So far this year upside risks include vaccine efficacy, coordinated monetary and fiscal stimulus, China’s avoidance of over-…
Yesterday our 2.5% rolling stop on the cyclicals vs. defensives ratio was triggered intraday and we are obeying this risk management metric we recently instituted to our portfolio, capitalizing 17% in gains since the July 27…
Chinese data is waving a red flag as we highlighted in this Monday’s Strategy Report where we also instituted a 2.5% rolling stop to the cyclicals vs. defensives ratio. Not only are the Chinese authorities trying to…
The previous Insight highlighted the similarities between the 2009/10 episode and today, when the SPX troughed in March 2009 similar to the recent recessionary trough in March 2020. Our biggest worry is the reflex rebound in…