Currencies In-Depth

Highlights The clear and present deterioration in Sino-U.S. trade negotiations suggests the dollar will remain bid in the near term. While the probability of a trade deal has fallen, the situation remains highly fluid, and the odds could shift either way rather dramatically. Ultimately, it is…

Highlights Evidence continues to mount that the Chinese economy is in a bottoming process. This suggests the path of least resistance for the RMB is up. Meanwhile, as the U.S. and China move closer to a trade deal, any geopolitical risk premium in the RMB will slowly erode. The ultimate…

Highlights The correlation between oil and petrocurrencies has deeply weakened in recent years. One of the reasons has been the prominence of new, important producers, notably the U.S. Oil prices should trend towards $75/bbl by year-end. This will favor the NOK, but the CAD and AUD will be…

Highlights Every diversified currency portfolio should hold the yen as insurance against rising market volatility. However, for tactical investors, the latest dovish shift by global central banks almost guarantees the Bank of Japan will err on the side of stronger stimulus (explicitly or…