Currencies

In this report, we explore some trading opportunities after a volatile few weeks for FX markets.

We unveil the ‘Joshi rule’ real-time recession indicator as a much better version of the Federal Reserve’s own ‘Sahm rule’. And we identify what would trigger these recession indicators in this week’s and future US jobs reports. Plus: airlines, soybeans, and tin are all good rebound candidates based on their collapsed short-term complexities.

Introducing our Special Series to assess where Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain stand today. Stay tuned for more.

Aggressive monetary tightening has always led to recession, although the timing is uncertain. The effects of high interest rates are starting to be felt. Investors should stay risk off and buy government bonds as a safe haven investment with carry.

Highlights Canadian economic growth slowed significantly in Q2, raising the question of whether one of the most indebted economies in the world is buckling under the weight of tight monetary policy. Contrary to a popular narrative in Canada, the country’s increase in household sector debt over…

US fiscal, monetary, and foreign policies are unlikely to deliver any dovish surprises for investors in Q4, due to the impending government shutdown, persistent inflation, and instability among OPEC+ and China.