Currencies

Following today’s US jobs data release, the Joshi rule real-time US recession indicator inched up to 0.18 and is now just a whisker from its recession event-horizon of 0.20.

The market is excited by the idea that the Fed will cut rates early this year, even without a recession. But is that likely, with inflation still set to be around 2.8% mid-year?

A post-mortem of our trades for the year, and also comments on future yen and sterling moves from the recent BoJ meeting, and the UK inflation report.

The statement from last week’s Central Economic Work Conference indicates that Chinese authorities are still not considering large-scale stimulus in 2024. Odds are that a full-fledged business cycle recovery in 2024 is unlikely. Chinese share prices remain vulnerable, and strengthening in the RMB will be short-lived.

Explore the eight main themes that will drive the returns of European assets in 2024.

Our recommendations for blogs and X’s (on the economy, financial markets, asset allocation, bonds, quants, energy, real estate, geopolitics, and specific countries and regions) to try over the holidays.

In this week’s report, we present our dollar view for 2024 and beyond, with a few trade ideas.

The major question facing EM investors in 2024 is whether or not EM will cross the Rubicon. The path to a soft landing in the US remains elusive. The recent improvement in global manufacturing/trade will likely prove to be a mid-cycle bounce rather than the beginning of a cyclical recovery.