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Currencies

Near-Identical Rate Cuts In The G7 Is A Mispricing
Given the huge disparities in wage inflation between the US, euro area and UK, it is remarkable that the markets are pricing near-identical rate cuts from the Fed, ECB, and BoE of around 150 bps through 2024. Assuming central banks don’t behave recklessly –…
Daily Insights
January In Review
The late-2023 broad-based rally across major global financial assets fizzled at the start of this year, with most of the assets we track selling off in January. Chinese stocks continued to perform exceptionally poorly, with the investable and domestic…
Daily Insights
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An Update On The Hong Kong Dollar Peg

In this Special Report, we update our thinking on the Hong Kong SAR dollar peg, with implications for domestic asset markets.

China Investment Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Qingyun Xu, Chester Ntonifor
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Monthly Portfolio Update: Waiting For The Recession

When will the US also buckle under high rates? We expect a US recession to begin around mid-year. Stay defensive.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
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MacroQuant Model Update: The Party Is Winding Down

Following the release of the white paper yesterday, today we are sending you the inaugural issue of the MacroQuant Monthly, a report summarizing the output of our next-generation MacroQuant 2.0 model.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
NOK And The Inflation Problem For Norway
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service investors should remain long NOK/SEK. The Norges Bank kept policy on hold last week, but the bullish case for the NOK (albeit over the short term) remains in place. There were no major…
Daily Insights
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The UK And Japan Are At Wage Inflation Extremes. Why?

We describe and explain the wide disparity of wage inflation across G7 economies, and discuss what it means for the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ policy moves in the coming year. Plus: we highlight two investments ripe for reversal, and two investments ripe for rebound.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Balance Of Payments Matter For The USD
While balance of payments (BoP) do not really matter for day-to-day FX considerations, they do matter over the long term. According to BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategists, at high levels of US dollar valuation like today, the current account balance tends to…
Daily Insights
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Notes On JPY, CAD, EUR And NOK

We look at the implications for FX from the slew of central bank meetings this week.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
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China: Challenges Tackling Deflation

There is no easy way for China to forestall deflation. Provided policymakers are still reluctant to unleash large-size stimulus, more economic disappointments are likely in the coming months, and Chinese stocks will continue to sell off. The yuan is at risk of further depreciation versus the US dollar.

China Investment Strategy by Qingyun Xu

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