Corporate Bonds

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2023.

Risk assets would perform well over 12 months only if inflation falls to 2% without triggering a recession. That would be unprecedented. We recommend investors stay defensive.

In this US Bond Strategy Insight we discuss the outlook for bank bonds.

Pent-up demand for services is keeping the global economy going, but we still expect recession over the next 12 months. Investors should keep a cautious portfolio stance.

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for May 2023.

Government financing vehicles (LGFVs) are a key component of China’s credit system. LGFV bonds make up a 40% share of the onshore corporate bond market, and loans to LGFVs make up 20% of total loans. LGFV debt-servicing capacity is very weak. What are the ramifications of all of these for Chinese economic growth and financial markets?

This report looks at the relationship between rate risk and credit risk and how it has changed over time. It also makes the case for favoring agency MBS within an underweight allocation to US spread product.

In this report, we present our performance review of the BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS) model bond portfolio for the Q1/2023, and the outlook and scenario analysis for the next six months. The portfolio slightly underperformed its benchmark during the quarter as global growth showed surprising resilience to begin the year. Looking ahead, the portfolio is positioned to capitalize on an expected slowing of global growth over the rest of the year through an overweight stance on government bonds versus spread product.

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2023.

Is the European banking system hiding nasty surprises? How will the recent stress affect European growth and the ECB’s policy outlook?