Corporate Bonds

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for December 2023.

The recent uptick in European economic data will not last beyond the next six months. How will European corporate credit perform in this context?

Our kinked Phillips curve framework predicted the immaculate disinflation of 2023. That same framework is now warning that the global economy is heading towards a recession in the second half of 2024.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2023.

High interest rates will eventually cause growth to slow. Signs of stress are already starting to show. Stay cautiously positioned.

What will the next manufacturing cycle look like in Europe and how will risk assets perform? Lessons from the recent past.

Europe’s weak patch is not about the ECB’s policy tightening, at least not yet. 2024 is another story, and the ECB’s policy will prompt a Eurozone’s recession around the summer.

In this report, we present the quarterly review of the Global Fixed Income Strategy Model Bond Portfolio. The portfolio remains positioned for slower global growth momentum over the next 6-12 months, favoring government bonds over corporate debt. The portfolio also favors government bonds in countries flirting with recession where policy rates are too high (core Europe & the UK).