Corporate Bonds
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2026.
The turmoil in private credit is a wild card, but our traditional suite of credit cycle indicators does not point to an imminent spread-widening episode. We reiterate our benchmark weightings on Treasuries, investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds.
Interest rate volatility is very low across developed market fixed income. Investors should maximize the carry in their portfolios to outperform in a low rate vol environment.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for February 2026.
The 10-year Treasury term premium is now competitive with Baa- and Ba-rated credit spreads. Even without term premium compression, duration carry trades could outperform credit carry trades in a low rate vol environment.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2026.
This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust.
Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET) to discuss the economy and financial markets. We will also host a Webcast for APAC on Tuesday, December 16 at 8:00 PM EST (9:00 AM HKT+1 day).
And with that, I will sign off for the year. I wish you and your loved ones a very happy and healthy 2026. We will be back on Friday, January 2 with our MacroQuant Model Update.
We present our five key views for global fixed income markets in 2026. A year that will see the global easing cycle come to an end.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for December 2025.
Our key US fixed income views for 2026.