Corporate

Highlights Portfolio Strategy A stable China, a depreciating U.S. dollar, rising commodity prices and sustained synchronized global growth signal that the industrials complex, especially the most cyclical part, remains on a solid footing. Deteriorating profit prospects warn that investors…

Highlights Q4 earnings are beating raised expectations, and the bar for 2018 EPS is even higher. Housing, capex and a nudge from government spending are set to boost GDP in 2018. BCA's consumer spending model shows that economic factors, not sentiment or political affiliation, are the main…

Highlights U.S. equities 'melted up' in January as tax cuts made the robust growth/low inflation sweet spot even sweeter. Ominously, recent market action is beginning to resemble a classic late cycle blow-off phase. The fundamentals supporting the market will persist through most of the year,…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Relative sector index composition, the macro backdrop, relative operating metrics along with compelling valuations and washed out technicals suggest that a value over growth style bias is warranted. Rising interest rates and a flattening yield curve, coupled with…

Highlights The Beige Book released on January 17 keeps the Fed on track to raise rates at least three times this year and highlights the impact of the tax bill on the economy. BCA's Big 5 Bank Lending Beige Book highlights several of the positive trends supporting our view of the economy, the…

Equities have melted up in recent weeks, celebrating the tax bill passage, synchronized upswing in global economic data, still quiescent inflation and near vanishing tail risk. On July 10th when we penned the "SPX 3,000?" report, the S&P 500 was close to 2400.1 Over the past six months stocks…

Highlights The consensus expects a 12% year-over-year increase in EPS in Q4 2017 versus Q4 2016, and 14% for 2018. The repercussions of the tax bill on operating conditions in 2018 will be a focus for corporate management teams and investors when discussing Q4 2017 results. The December…

Highlights The November jobs report keeps the Fed on track. Despite rising government debt levels, crowding out is not a significant threat. Capex as a share of GDP rises the year before a tax cut and falls in the year after. Holiday spending on track, boosted by tax bill. Feature Last…

Highlights Junk & The Yield Curve: The flat yield curve increases the risk of a sell-off in junk bonds. The most likely scenario is that higher inflation steepens the curve and mitigates this risk, but if inflation fails to respond then spreads will probably gap wider in the near-term.…