Households’ excess pandemic savings will eventually run out, but we continue to disagree with the widespread view that they’re already gone or entirely in the hands of the wealthy. Consumers’ demise continues to be greatly…
The unexpected increase in Chinese industrial profits in August sent a positive signal about the economy. Industrial profits posted its first year-over-year increase since the second half of last year, surging by 17.2% y/y…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, nonfinancial corporate businesses have been more insulated from rising interest rates than they typically are during major rate-hike campaigns, but the buffer is…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service concludes that recent BEA data are understating corporate net interest expense by a significant amount. Given the recent climb in interest rates, it would be reasonable to expect…
Top-down measures of nonfinancial corporate sector balance sheet health have been flattered in recent quarters by inaccurate data on interest expense. After correcting for the inaccurate data, we see that our best measures of…
The Euro Area’s industrial production figures for July sent a disappointing signal on Wednesday. The 1.1% m/m decline in output fell below expectations of a smaller 0.9% m/m decrease. On a year-over-year basis, IP…
US small business optimism deteriorated for the first time in four months in August. The NFIB index declined by 0.6 point to 91.3, falling slightly below expectations of 91.5. In particular, current conditions deteriorated…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the profit outlook for Eurozone earnings continues to deteriorate. The team’s earnings model for Eurozone equities continues to point to a deepening…
The ongoing profit contraction among Chinese industrial firms underscores that deflationary headwinds dominate the domestic economy. Although the annual pace of decline of industrial profits slowed from 8.3% y/y in June to 6.7% y…
BCA Research's US Equity Strategy service downgraded Semiconductors to underweight for the following reasons: Weakening global growth: Global semiconductor sales move in lockstep with economic growth. Global growth…