Our Cyclical Indicator Update reveals that a defensive portfolio strategy remains the best bet to navigate the crosscurrents of stagnant profit/economic growth yet abundant global liquidity.
Consumer staples stocks have been on a tear recently, climbing to all-time highs. While valuations are in overshoot territory, the conditions to sustain this overshoot exist. A flurry of intra-sector M&A activity, anemic global…
While the economic fallout from Brexit is likely to play out over a long horizon as the U.K.'s exit is negotiated, this political event will have repercussions for U.S. equity markets in the interim. For instance, defensive sectors…
The sinking global credit impulse warns that reflation has not overwhelmed deflationary forces. Financials will continue to suffer, while utilities and retail drug stores will benefit.
Economic disappointment will become the key theme in the second half of the year, driving a return to non-cyclical market leadership and a recovery in the growth vs. value ratio.
Consumer goods stocks enjoyed a spirited run at the end of 2015 and into 2016, but have largely consolidated that outperformance this year. However, the S&P packaged food (PF) index has bucked the trend, recently setting a new all-…
Our recent upgrade of the S&P hypermarkets index was predicated on the view that expectations had become so depressed that upside profit margin and sales surprises were increasingly likely. Walmart's positive earnings results…
We focus on 3 stress-points in the economy and markets which segue to several high conviction investment recommendations.
Beverage industry profit results have shown the negative impact of the previously strong U.S. dollar, causing some profit-taking in related shares. Nevertheless, underlying earnings fundamentals remain sound, and the currency should…