Consumer Staples

Highlights Portfolio Strategy A battle between tighter monetary conditions and the anticipation of fiscal largesse will be a dominant market theme this year. Our high-conviction equity allocation calls do not require making a major directional global economic bet, or second guessing the Fed's desire to continue tightening. The bulk of our calls could currently be considered contrarian, based on recent market momentum and sub-surface relative valuation swings. Recent Changes S&P Insurance Index - Downgrade to high-conviction underweight. Nasdaq Biotech Index - Downgrade to high-conviction underweight. Feature Stocks have already paid for a significant acceleration in earnings and economic growth this year and beyond. Fourth quarter earnings season will be the first real test of investor expectations since the post-election market surge. While recent data have been encouraging, forward corporate profit guidance is unlikely to be robust in the face of the U.S. dollar juggernaut. Currently, the hope is that fiscal stimulus will offset tighter monetary settings, ultimately delivering a higher plane of economic activity. The major risks are that the economy loses momentum before fiscal spending cranks up, and/or that profits diverge from a more resilient economic performance than liquidity conditions forecast. Indeed, fiscal stimulus isn't slated to accelerate until next year (Chart 1), while the impact of anti-growth market moves is far more imminent. Our Reflation Gauge has plunged, heralding economic disappointment (Chart 1). With the economy near full employment, Fed hawkishness could persist even in the face of any initial evidence of economic cooling. Under these conditions, the gap between nominal GDP and 10-year Treasury yields could turn negative in the first half of the year (Chart 2), which would be a major warning sign for stocks. Chart 1Fiscal Stimulus Is Still A Long Way Off Chart 2Warning Signal As a result, while the market has recently been focused almost solely on return, our emphasis at this juncture is on minimizing risk. That is consistent with the historic market performance during Fed tightening cycles. Going back to the early-1970s and using the last seven Fed interest rate hiking periods, it is evident that non-cyclical sector relative performance benefits immensely on both a 12 and 24 month horizon from the onset of Fed tightening (Charts 3 and 4). Cyclical sectors typically lag the broad market, while financials generally market perform1. Chart 312-Month Performance After Fed Hikes Chart 424-Month Performance After Fed Hikes Some of the other major macro forces that are likely to influence the broad market and sectoral trends are: Ongoing strength in the U.S. dollar and its drag on top-line growth: loose fiscal policy and tight monetary policy is a classic recipe for currency strength. Tack on high and rising interest rate differentials due to policy divergences with the rest of the world (Chart 5), and exchange rate strength is likely to persist in the absence of a major domestic economic downturn. A tough-talking Fed. Wage growth is accelerating and broadening out, and will sharpen the Fed's focus on inflation expectations. With dollar strength constraining revenue growth potential, strong wage gains are profit margin sapping (Chart 2). A divergence between economic growth and profit performance, i.e. stronger growth is unlikely to feed into equal growth in corporate sector earnings given the squeeze on profit margins from a recovery in labor's ability to garner a larger share of aggregate income. Disappointment and/or uncertainty as to the timing and rollout of the much anticipated fiscal spending programs and unfunded tax cuts. Favoring domestic vs. global exposure will remain a key theme. Emerging markets (EM) have not validated the sharp jump in the global vs. domestic stocks, nor cyclical vs. defensives (Chart 6). Chart 5Greenback Is A Drag##br## On S&P 500 Top Line Growth Chart 6Mind##br## The Gap EM stocks are pro-cyclical, and outperform when economic growth prospects are perceived to be improving. The surging U.S. dollar is a growth impediment for many developing countries with large foreign liabilities to service. The U.S. PMI is gaining vs. the Chinese and euro area PMI (Chart 7, second panel), heralding a rebound in cyclical share price momentum. World export growth remains anemic and will remain so based on EM currency trends (Chart 7). When compared with the reacceleration in U.S. retail sales, the outlook for domestically-sourced profits is even brighter. The other key sectoral theme is to favor areas geared to the consumer rather than the corporate sector. Consumer income statements and balance sheets are far healthier than those of the corporate sector (Chart 8). As a result, they are in a more propitious position to spend and expand. Chart 7Domestics Will Rise To The Occasion Chart 8Consumers Trump The Corporate Sector We expect all of these forces to truncate rally attempts in 2017. The market is already stretching far enough technically to flag risk of a potentially sizeable correction in the first quarter, i.e. greater than 10%, particularly given the significant tightening in monetary conditions and overheating bullish sentiment that have developed. In other words, it is not an environment to chase the post-election winners, nor turn bearish on the losers that have been eschewed. Against this backdrop, we are introducing our top ten high-conviction calls for 2017. As always, these calls are fundamentally-based and we expect them to have longevity and/or meaningful relative return potential, rather than just reflect recent momentum trends. We recognize the difficulty of trading in and out of positions on a short-term basis. Energy Services - Overweight Chart 9Playable Rally The energy sector scores well in relative performance terms when the Fed is hiking interest rates2, supporting a high-conviction overweight in the energy services group. OPEC's agreement to curtail production should hasten supply/demand rebalancing that was already slated to occur via non-OPEC production declines through 2017. U.S. shale producers slashed capital expenditures by 65% from 2014 to 2016, and the International Oil Companies reduced capital expenditures by 40% over the same period. OPEC's decision to trim output should mitigate downside commodity price risks, providing debt and equity markets with confidence to restore capital availability to the sector. With easier access to capital, producers, especially shale, will be able to accelerate drilling programs in a stable commodity price environment. The three factors traditionally required to sustain a playable rally are now in place. The rig count has troughed. The growth in OECD oil inventories has crested. The latter is consistent with a gradual rise in the number of active drilling rigs. Finally, global oil production growth is falling steadily. Pricing power is likely to be slow to recover this cycle given the scope of previous capacity excesses, but even a move to neutral would remove a major drag and reduce the associated share price risk premium (Chart 9). Consumer Staples - Overweight 2016 delivered a number of company specific body blows to the consumer staples sector, most notably concerns about the pharmacy benefit manger pricing model, which undermined the retail drug store group. Thereafter, the sector was shunned on a macro level following the election, as it was used as a source of capital to fund aggressive purchases in more cyclical sectors. This has set the stage for a contrarian buying opportunity in a high quality, defensive sector with one of the best track records during Fed tightening cycles3. The sector is now closing in on an undervalued extreme, in relative terms, having already reached such a reading in technical terms (Chart 10). Our Cyclical Macro Indicator is climbing, supported by the persistent rise in consumers' preference for saving. The latter heralds an increase in outlays at non-cyclical retailers relative to sales at more discretionary stores. Importantly, consumer staples exports have reaccelerated, despite the strong U.S. dollar, pointing to a further acceleration in sector sales growth, and by extension, free cash flow. The strong U.S. dollar is a major boon, from an historical perspective, given that it typically creates increased global economic and market volatility. The latter is starting to pick up (Chart 10). A strong currency, particularly bilaterally against China, also implies a reduction in the cost of imported goods sold, and heralds a relative performance rebound (Chart 11). Chart 10Contrarian Buy Chart 11China To The Rescue? Home Improvement Retail - Overweight Enticing long-term housing prospects argue for looking through the recent rise in mortgage rates. Household formation is reaccelerating, as full employment is boosting consumer confidence, and clocking at a higher speed than housing starts. The implication is that pent-up housing demand will be unleashed. In fact, consumers have only recently started re-levering, with banks more than willing to facilitate renewed appetite for mortgage debt. Remodeling activity is booming and anecdotes of house flipping activity picking up steam are corroborating that the housing market is vibrant. Now that house prices have recently overtaken the 2006 all-time highs, the incentive to upgrade and remodel should accelerate. While the recent backup in bond yields has been a setback for housing affordability, the U.S. consumer is not priced out of the housing market. Yields are rising in tandem with job security and wages. Mortgage payments remain below the long-term average as a share of income and effective mortgage rates remain near generationally low levels. Building supply store construction growth has plumbed to the lowest level since the history of the data. Historically, capacity restraint has represented a boost to home improvement retail (HIR) profit margins and has been inversely correlated with industry sales growth. Stable housing data and improving operating industry metrics entice us to put the compellingly valued S&P HIR on our high-conviction buy list for 2017 (Chart 12). Chart 12Benefiting From Enticing##br## Long-Term Housing Prospects Chart 13Healthy Consumer Is A Boon##br## To Consumer Finance Stocks Consumer Finance - Overweight We are focusing our early-cyclical exposure on overweighting the still bruised S&P consumer finance index. This group is levered to the rising interest rate environment and debt-financed consumer spending. The selloff in the 10-year Treasury bond has been closely correlated with relative performance gains and the current message is to expect additional firming in the latter (Chart 13, top panel). Importantly, higher interest rates have boosted credit card interest rate spreads (the industry's equivalent net interest margin metric), underscoring that the next leg up in relative share prices will be earnings led (Chart 13, bottom panel). On the consumer front, consumer finances are healthy, the job market is vibrant and consumer income expectations are on the rise. In addition, house prices have vaulted to fresh all-time highs and are still expanding on a y/y basis. The positive wealth effect provides motivation for consumers to run down savings rates (Chart 13, second & third panels). Health Care Equipment - Overweight Health care equipment (HCE) stocks have been de-rated alongside the broad health care index, trading at a mere market multiple and below the historical mean, representing a buy opportunity. Revenue growth has been climbing at a double digit clip (Chart 14, third panel) and the surging industry shipments-to-inventories ratio is signaling that still depressed relative sales growth expectations will surprise to the upside (Chart 14, top panel). Synchronized global growth is also encouraging for U.S. medical equipment exports, despite the U.S. dollar's recent appreciation. The ageing population in the developed markets along with pent up demand for health care services in the emerging markets where a number of countries are developing public safety nets, bode well for HCE long-term demand prospects. The bottom panel of Chart 14 shows that the global PMI has been an excellent leading indicator of HCE exports and the current message is positive. The recent contraction in valuation multiples suggests that sales are expected to disappoint in the coming year, an outlook that appears overly cautious, especially within the context of the nascent improvement in industry return on equity (Chart 14, second panel). Chart 14HCE Stocks Are Cheap Given##br## Improving Final Demand Outlook Chart 15More Than##br## Meets The Eye REITs - Overweight REITs have traded as if the back up in global bond yields will persist indefinitely, and that the level of interest rates is the only factor that drives relative performance. Improving cash flows and cheap valuations suggest that REITs can decouple from bond yields. Our REIT Demand Indicator (RDI) has climbed into positive territory, signaling higher rental inflation. The latter is already outpacing overall CPI by a wide margin. The RDI is also positively correlated with commercial property prices, implying more new highs ahead. That will support higher net asset values. While increased supply is a potential sore spot, particularly in the residential space, multifamily housing starts have rolled over relative to the total, suggesting that new apartment builds are diminishing. As discussed in previous research reports, contrary to popular perception, relative performance is also depressed from a structural perspective. REIT relative performance is trading well below its long-term trend, a starting point which has historically overwhelmed any negative pressure from a Fed tightening cycle (Chart 15). Tech Hardware Storage & Peripherals - Underweight The S&P technology hardware storage & peripherals (THSP) sector is a disinflationary play (10-year treasury yield change shown inverted, second panel, Chart 16) and benefits when prices are deflating, not when there are whiffs of inflation4. The tech sector has the highest foreign sales/EPS exposure among the top 11 sectors, and the persistent rise in the greenback is weighing on export prospects for the THSP sub-index (Chart 16, third panel), and by extension top and bottom line growth. Computer and electronic products new order growth has fallen sharply recently, warning that THSP sales growth will remain downbeat. Industry investment is also probing multi-year lows (not shown). Asian inventory destocking is ongoing, which will pressure selling prices, but the end of this liquidation phase would be a signal that the worst will soon be over. Technical conditions are bearish. A pennant formation signals that a breakdown looms. Chart 16Tech Stocks Hate Reflation Chart 17Shy Away, Don't Be Brave Biotech - Underweight The Nasdaq biotech index is following the BCA Mania Index, which includes previous burst bubbles in a broad array of asset classes. The top panel of Chart 17 shows that if history at least rhymes, biotech bubble deflation is slated to continue. Only 45 stocks in the NASDAQ biotech index have positive 12-month forward earnings estimates, comprising 27% of the 164 companies in the index according to Bloomberg. There is still a lot of air to be taken out of the biotech bubble. Historically, interest rates and relative performance have been inversely correlated. The back up in bond yields and Fed tightening represent a draining in liquidity conditions which bodes ill for higher beta and more speculative investments. The biotech derating has been earnings driven and a sustained multiple compression period looms, especially given the sector's poor sales prospects (Chart 17, bottom panel) Worrisomely, not only have biotech stocks fallen despite Trump's win, but recent speculative zeal (buoyant equity sentiment and resurging margin debt, not shown) has also failed to reinvigorate biotech equities. The NASDAQ biotech index is a sell (ETF ticker: IBB:US). Industrials - Underweight The industrials sector was added to our high-conviction underweight list late last year so the turn in calendar does not require a change in outlook. The sector has discounted massive domestic fiscal stimulus and disregarded the competitive drag on earnings from the U.S. dollar, trading as if a profit boom is imminent. Recent traction in surveys of industrial activity is a plus, but is more a reflection of an improvement in corporate sentiment and is unlikely to translate into imminent industrials sector profit improvement. The U.S. dollar surge is a direct threat to any benefit from an increase in domestic infrastructure or private sector investment spending. Commodity prices and EM drag when the dollar is strong. Chronic surplus EM industrial capacity remains a source of deflationary pressure for their currencies, economies and U.S. industrial companies. U.S. dollar strength warns of renewed pricing power pressure (Chart 18). Non-tech industrial capacity is growing faster than output, and capital goods imports prices are contracting (Chart 18). Tack on the relentless surge in the U.S. dollar, and a new deflationary wave appears inevitable. Relative forward earnings momentum is already negative, and is likely to remain so given the barriers to a top-line recovery, and a soaring domestic wage bill. The sector is not priced for lackluster earnings. Chart 18Fade The Bounce Chart 19Advance Is Precarious Insurance - Underweight Insurance stocks have benefited from the upward shift in the yield curve and the re-pricing of the overall financials sector, but the advance is precarious. Previously robust insurance pricing power has cracked. The CPI for household insurance is barely growing. The latter is typically correlated with auto premiums, underscoring that they may also slip (Chart 19). While higher interest rates are positive for investment portfolio income, they also imply mark-to-market losses on bond portfolios and incent insurers to underwrite at a faster pace with more lenient standards, which is often a precursor to increased competition and less pricing power. Insurance companies have added massively to cost structures in recent years (Chart 19), while the rest of the financials sector was shedding labor costs. Relative valuations have enjoyed a step-function upshift, but the path of least resistance will be lower for as long as relative consumer spending on insurance products retreats on the back of pricing pressure (Chart 19). 2016 Review... Last year's high-conviction calls were hot out of the gate, and generally had very strong gains until the late-summer/early-fall, but were hijacked by the post-election surge in a few sectors. As a result of the end of year fireworks, our high conviction calls trailed the market by just under 2% for the year ending 2016. Had we had the foresight to predict a Trump win and a massive market rally, we could have closed our positions in early November for comfortably positive gains. In total, our average booked gains in the year were 3% in excess of the broad market since the positions were initiated. We are also closing our pair trades, and will re-introduce a number of new trades in the near future. Anastasios Avgeriou, Vice President Global Alpha Sector Strategy & U.S. Equity Strategy anastasios@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see the U.S. Equity Strategy Special Report titled: "Sector Performance And Fed Tightening Cycles: An Historical Roadmap", available at uses.bcaresearch.com. 2 Ibid 3 Ibid 4 Please see the U.S. Equity Strategy Special Report titled: "Equity Sector Winners And Losers When Inflation Climbs", available at uses.bcaresearch.com. Current Recommendations Current Trades Size And Style Views Favor small over large caps. Favor growth over value (downgrade alert).

Special Report

Feature At no time in recent history have China's foreign reserves been under such tight scrutiny by global investors as they are now. The country's multi-trillion-dollar official reserve assets, long viewed by both Chinese officials and the global investment community as an unproductive use of resources, have suddenly became a lifeline for China's exchange rate stability. The latest numbers released last week show China's official reserves currently stand at US$3.05 trillion, a massive drawdown from the US$3.99 trillion all-time peak reached in 2014. Over the years, we have been running a series of Special Reports tracking the composition of China's foreign asset holdings.1 This year's update has become all the more relevant. The monthly headline figures on China's official reserves have been eagerly anticipated for clues of domestic capital outflows and the RMB outlook. Meanwhile, as the largest foreign holder of American government paper, changes in China's official reserves are also being scrutinized to assess any impact on U.S. interest rates. Moreover, Chinese outward direct investment (ODI), which had already accelerated strongly in the past few years, has skyrocketed this year - partially driven by expectations of further RMB depreciation. The Chinese authorities have recently tightened scrutiny on large overseas investments by domestic firms, which will likely lead to a notable slowdown in Chinese ODI in the near term.2 This week we take a closer look at the U.S. Treasury International Capital (TIC) system data and various other sources to check the evolution of China's official reserves and foreign assets. There are some important caveats. First, Chinese holdings of U.S. assets reported by the TIC are not entirely held by the People's Bank of China in its official reserves. Some assets, particularly corporate bonds and equities, may be held by Chinese institutional investors. Meanwhile, it is well known that in recent years China has been using offshore custodians in some European countries, the usual suspects being Belgium, Luxembourg and the U.K., which disguises the true situation of the country's official reserve holdings. Finally, China's large conglomerates owned by the central government also hold vast amounts of foreign assets, or "shadow reserves" that could be utilized to support the RMB if needed. Recently these state-owned giants were reportedly required by the government to repatriate some of their foreign cash sitting idle overseas to counter capital outflows. All of this suggests the resources available to the government are larger than the official reserve figures. With these caveats, this week's update reveals some important developments in the past year: Chinese foreign reserves have dropped by around US$400 billion since the end of 2015 to US$3.05 trillion, a level last seen in 2005 when the RMB was de-pegged from the dollar followed by a multi-year ascendance (Chart 1). China still holds the largest amount of foreign reserves in the world, but its global share has dropped to about 40%, down from a peak of over 50% in 2014. TIC data show Chinese holdings of U.S. assets declined by a mere US$100 billion in the past year, leading to a sharp increase in U.S. assets as a share of the country's total foreign reserves (Table 1). This could be attributable to mark-to-market "paper losses" of Chinese holdings in non-dollar denominated foreign assets, due to the broad strength of the greenback. It is also possible that China may have intentionally increased its allocations to U.S. assets due to heightened risks in other countries, particularly in Europe. Chinese holdings of Japanese government bonds also increased significantly this past year. Table 1Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasurys have dropped by about US$100 billion in recent months, but holdings of some other countries suspected as China's overseas custodians have continued to rise (Chart 2). This could mean that Chinese holdings of U.S. assets could be larger than reflected in the TIC data. Chinese outward direct investments have continued to power ahead. Previously Chinese investments were heavily concentrated in commodities sectors and resource-rich countries. This year the U.S. has turned out to be the clear winner in attracting Chinese capital. Moreover, recent investment deals have been concentrated in consumer related sectors such as tourism, entertainment and technology industries. Chart 1Chinese Foreign Reserves##br## Have Continued To Decline Chart 2U.S. Treasurys: How Much ##br##Does China Really Hold? Yan Wang, Senior Vice President China Investment Strategy yanw@bcaresearch.com Qingyun Xu, Senior Analyst qingyun@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see China Investment Strategy Special Report, "Demystifying China's Foreign Assets", dated September 30, 2015, available at cis.bcaresearch.com Please see China Investment Strategy Weekly Report, “How Will China Manage The Impossible Trinity”, dated December 8, 2015, available at cis.bcaresearch.com China's official data shows that the country's total holdings of international assets have stayed flat at around US$6.2 trillion since 2014, including foreign exchange reserves, direct investment, overseas lending and holdings of bonds and equities. Official reserves have declined in recent years, but other holdings have jumped sharply. Reserves assets still account for over half of total foreign assets, but their share has continued to drop. In contrast, outward direct investment and overseas loans have gained significantly both in value terms and as a share of the country's total foreign assets. Chart 3 Chart 4 Despite the sharp decline, international investment positions by Chinese nationals, public and private combined, are still much more heavily concentrated in official reserve assets compared with other major economies. In other major creditor countries, outward direct investments and portfolio investments account for much larger shares than reserve assets. Official reserves in the U.S. are negligible. Chinese official reserves give the PBoC resources to maintain exchange rate stability, but they also lower the expected returns of the country's foreign assets. Encouraging domestic entities to acquire overseas assets directly has been a long-run policy. More recently, however, the authorities have been alarmed by the pace of Chinese nationals' overseas investment and have been taking restrictive measures. Chart 5 Our calculations shows that Chinese total holdings of U.S. assets reached US$1.74 trillion at the end of September 2016, including Treasurys, government agency bonds, corporate bonds, stocks and non-Treasury short-term custody liabilities of U.S. banks to Chinese official institutions, based on the TIC data (Table 1, on page 2). Treasurys still account for the majority of the country's total holdings of U.S. assets, while bonds and stocks are relatively insignificant. China's holdings of U.S. assets as a share of total reserves declined between the global financial crisis and 2014, since when the trend has reversed. The share of U.S. asset holdings currently accounts for 55% of Chinese official reserves, compared with a peak of over 70% in the early 2000s and a trough of 46% in 2014. This could also be attributable to the sharp appreciation of the U.S. dollar against other majors. The U.S. dollar carries a 42% weight in the SDR (Special Drawing Rights of the International Monetary Fund), and it accounts for about 60% of total foreign reserves managed by global central banks. These could be two relevant benchmarks to gauge China's desired level of holdings of U.S. dollar-denominated assets in its official reserves. Chart 6 Chart 7 In terms of duration, the major part of Chinese holdings of U.S. assets is long-term (with maturity more than one year), mainly in the form of government and agency bonds, corporate bonds and stocks. Chinese holdings of short-term U.S. assets were minimal in recent years but picked up notably in the past few months, while longer term assets declined. During the global financial crisis in 2008/09, China massively increased its holdings of short-term U.S. assets, amid a global drive of "flight to liquidity" at the height of the crisis. Chart 8 Chart 9 In terms of risk classification, the majority of Chinese holdings of U.S. assets are risk-free assets, including Treasurys and government agency bonds. China's holdings of these assets have plateaued in recent years. As a share of China's total reserves, U.S. risk-free assets currently account for about 45%, down from about 65% in 2003. Meanwhile, its accumulation of U.S. risky assets, including stocks and corporate bonds, has increased sharply in the past year. Chart 10 Chart 11 China currently holds US$1.16 trillion of Treasurys, which account for over 80% of total Chinese holdings of U.S. risk-free assets, or 37% of total Chinese foreign reserves. Notably, Treasurys as a share of Chinese foreign reserves have been relatively stable, ranging between 30% and 40% over the past decade. This may be the comfort zone for the Chinese authorities' asset allocation to the U.S. government paper. China's holdings of U.S. government agency bonds have picked up in the past year, but are still significantly lower than at its peak prior to the U.S. subprime debacle. Its share in Chinese foreign reserves has declined to 8% from a peak of close to 30% in 2008. Chart 12 Chart 13 Almost the entire Chinese holding of Treasurys is parked in long-term paper (with duration of more than one year). China's possession of short-term Treasurys has been negligible in recent years, but picked up notably of late. It is possible that the Chinese central bank may be increasing cash holdings to deal with capital outflows. Chart 14 Chart 15 Chinese holdings of risky U.S. assets - corporate bonds and equities - account for over 10% of China's total foreign reserves, up sharply since 2008 after China established its sovereign wealth fund. China's holdings of risky assets are predominately equities, currently standing at about USD 325 billion, little changed in recent years. Its possessions of corporate bonds are very low. Chart 16 Chart 17 China remains the largest foreign creditor to the U.S. government. Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasurys account for about 11% of total outstanding U.S. government bonds, or around 20% of total foreign holdings of U.S. Treasurys, according to our calculation. About 55% of outstanding U.S. Treasurys are held by foreigners. China is also one of the largest foreign holders of U.S. of agency bonds. While its holdings only accounts for 3% of total outstanding agency bonds, they account for around 25% of the total held by foreigners. About 12% of agency and GSE-backed securities are currently held by foreigners. Chart 18 Chart 19 Chinese outward direct investments have continued to march higher in the past year, reaching yet another record high in 2015, and will likely set a new record in 2016. Total overseas direct investments amount to USD 1.4 trillion, equivalent to about half of China's official reserves. China's overseas investments have been heavily concentrated in resources-rich regions and industries. Cumulatively, the energy sector alone accounts for almost half of China's total overseas investments, followed by transportation infrastructure and base metals, which clearly underscores China's demand for commodities. China's outbound investment was originally led by state-owned enterprises. More recently, private Chinese enterprises have become more active in overseas investments and acquisitions. Chart 20 Chart 21 Chart 22 Corporate China's interest in global resource space has waned in the past year. Total investment in energy space has plateaued in recent years. There has been a dramatic increase in investment in some consumer-related sectors, particularly in tourism, entertainment and technology. These investment deals are mainly driven by private enterprises, and also reflect the changing dynamics of the Chinese economy. The U.S. received by far the largest share of Chinese investment in 2016. Total U.S.-bound Chinese investment in the first half of the year already dramatically outpaced the total amount of 2015. Chinese investments in resource rich countries, such as Australia, Canada and Brazil have been much less robust. Chinese net purchase of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) increased sharply this year. In the eight months of 2016 China's net purchases of JGBs reached $86.6 billion, more than tripling the amount during the same period last year. Chinese cumulative net purchases of JGBs since 2014 reached JPY 14.5 trillion, or USD 140 billion. This amounts to 2% of total outstanding JGBs and 4% of Chinese official reserves. Chart 23 Chart 24 Chart 25 Cyclical Investment Stance Equity Sector Recommendations

Special Report

President-elect Trump and the specter of his spendthrift policy proposals have generated significant client interest/inquiries on equities and inflation - not asset prices, but of the more traditional kind: consumer price inflation. Chart 1 shows that a little bit of inflation would be positive for the broad equity market, further fueling the high-risk, liquidity-driven blow off phase. However, when inflation has reached 3.7%-4% in the past, the broad equity market has stumbled (Chart 2). Sizeable tax cuts, increased infrastructure and defense spending (i.e. loose fiscal policy), protectionism and a tougher stance on immigration are inherently inflationary policies (and bond price negative) ceteris paribus. Chart 1A Whiff Of Inflation##br## Is Good For Stocks... Chart 2...But Too Much ##br##Is Restrictive However, our working assumption is that in the next 9-12 months, CPI headline inflation will only renormalize, rather than surge. Importantly, the magnitude and timing of the implementation of Trump's policy pledges is unknown. Moreover, the Fed's reaction function is also uncertain, and the resulting economic growth and U.S. dollar impact will be critical in determining whether any lasting inflation acceleration occurs. Table 1 For global inflation to take root beyond the short term, Europe and Japan would also have to follow Canada's and America's fiscal largesse to swing the global deflation/inflation pendulum toward sustained inflation. The Fed's Reaction Function Our sense is that a Yellen-led Fed will allow for some inflation overshoot to materialize. This view was originally posited in her 2012 "optimal control"1 speech and more recently reiterated with her mid-October speech emphasizing "temporarily running a "high-pressure economy," with robust aggregate demand and a tight labor market."2 The Fed has credible tools to deal with inflation. If economic growth does not soar, but rather sustains its post-GFC steady 2-2.5% real GDP growth profile as we expect, then taking some inflation risk is a high-probability. The implication is that the Fed will likely not rush to abruptly tighten monetary policy, a view confirmed by the bond market , which is penciling in only 40bps for 2017 (Chart 3). A sustainable breakout in bond yields would require inflation (and to a lesser extent real GDP growth) to significantly surprise to the upside and thus compel the Fed to aggressively raise the fed funds rate. Is that on the horizon? While wage inflation has perked up, unit labor cost inflation has a spotty track record in terms of leading core consumer goods prices. Why? About 20% of the CPI and PCE inflation baskets are produced abroad, underscoring that domestic costs are not a factor in setting prices. There is a tighter correlation between unit labor costs and service sector inflation, but even here there is not a consistent relationship (Chart 4). Consequently, there is minimal pressure on the Fed to get aggressive, suggesting that most of the cyclical back up in long-term yields may have already occurred. Chart 3Fed Will Be Late, As Always Chart 4Wage And CPI Inflation Often Diverge The 1960s Analogy The 1960s period provides an instructive guide for today. Then, an extremely tight labor market and a positive output gap was initially ignored by the Fed, i.e. the economy was allowed to overheat (Chart 5). This ultimately led to the surge of inflation in the 1970s, especially given the then highly unionized labor market (see appendix Chart A1). While there are similarities between the current backdrop and the 1960s, namely an extended business cycle, full employment, narrowing output gap, easy monetary and a path to easing fiscal policies, and rising money multiplier, there are also striking differences. At the current juncture, wage inflation is half of what it was in the mid-1960s. Even unit labor costs heated up to over 8% back then, nearly four times the current level. Chart 5The 1960's... Chart 6... And Today Full employment has only been recently attained (Chart 6) and in order to pose a long-term inflation worry, it would have to stay near 5% for another three years. True, the output gap is almost closed, and is forecast to turn marginally positive in 2017/2018, but much will depend on the timing of fiscal stimulus. Industrial production has diverged negatively from the output gap of late, suggesting that excess capacity still lingers in some parts of the economy (Chart 7). The upshot is that inflationary pressures may stay contained for some time, especially if the U.S. dollar continues to firm. The global environment remains marked by deficient demand, not scarce resources. Chart 8 shows that the NFIB survey of the small business sector has a good track record in leading core inflation. The survey shows that businesses are still finding it difficult to lift selling prices. That is confirmed by deflation in the retail price deflator. Chart 7Divergent Economic Slack Messages Chart 8Pricing Power Trouble Finally, while the money multiplier has troughed, it would have to jump to a level of 4.9 to parallel the 1960s (Chart 9). This is a tall order and it would really require the Fed to very aggressively wind down its balance sheet. Chart 9Monitoring The Money Multiplier Therefore, a 1960s repeat would be a tail risk, and not our base case forecast. What About The Greenback? Chart 10 shows that inflation decelerates during U.S. dollar bull markets. Our Foreign Exchange Strategy service believes that the currency has more cyclical upside3, given that it has not yet overshot on a valuation basis and interest rate differentials will favor the U.S. for the foreseeable future. Accordingly, it may be difficult for inflation to rise on a sustained basis. Chart 10Appreciating Dollar Is##br## Always Disinflationary So What? Accelerating inflation is a modest risk, but not our base case forecast. Nevertheless, for investors that are more worried about the prospect of higher inflation, the purpose of this Special Report is to serve as an equity sector positioning roadmap if inflationary pressures become more acute sooner than we anticipate. Historically, inflation has been synonymous with an aggressive Fed and hard asset outperformance, suggesting that deep cyclical sectors would be primary beneficiaries. Table 1 on Page 2 shows that over the last six major inflationary cycles, energy, materials, real estate and health care have been consistent outperformers. Utilities, tech and telecom have been clear underperformers. The remaining sectors have been a mixed bag. However, this cycle, potential growth is much lower than in the past, underscoring that the hit to overall profits from tighter monetary policy could be pronounced, potentially undermining equity market risk premiums. If inflation rises too quickly and the Fed hits the economic brakes, then it is hard to envision cyclical sectors putting in a strong market performance, especially given their high debt loads and shaky balance sheets, i.e. they are at the epicenter of corporate sector vulnerability if interest rates rise too quickly. Owning shaky balance sheets in a sluggish global economy is a strategy fraught with risk. On the flipside, the recent knee jerk sell off in more defensive sectors represents a reversal of external capital flows, and is not representative of an underlying vulnerability in their earnings prospects. As a result of this shift, valuations now favor more defensive sectors by a wide margin. Ultimately, we expect relative profit trends to dictate relative performance on a cyclical investment horizon, and are not rushing to position our portfolio for accelerating inflation. Anastasios Avgeriou, Vice President Global Alpha Sector Strategy anastasios@bcaresearch.com 1 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20120411a.htm 2 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20161014a.htm 3 https://fes.bcaresearch.com/articles/view_report/20812 Health Care (Overweight) Health care stocks have consistently outperformed during the six inflationary periods we studied. Over the long haul it has paid to overweight this sector given the structural uptrend in relative share prices. Spending on health care services is non-cyclical and demand for such services is also on a secular rise around the globe: in the developed markets driven largely by the aging population and in the emerging markets by the adoption of health care safety nets (Chart 11). Health care pricing power is expanding at a healthy clip, outshining overall CPI. Importantly, recent geopolitical uncertainty had cast a shadow on the sector's pricing power prospects that suffered from a constant derating. Now that political and pricing power uncertainty is lifting, a rerating looms. Finally, the health care sector's dividend yield allure is the lowest among defensive sectors and remains 44bps below the broad market, somewhat insulating the sector from the inflation driven selloff in the bond market (Chart 12). Chart 11Health Care Chart 12Health Care Consumer Staples (Overweight) Similar to the health care sector, consumer staples stocks have been stellar outperformers over the past 55 years. The sector's track record during the six inflationary periods we studied is split down the middle. Most consumer staples companies are global conglomerates and their efforts have been focused on building global consumer brands, allowing them to implement a stickier pricing strategy. As a result, overall inflation/deflation pressures are more benign (Chart 13). Relative consumer staples pricing power is expanding and has been in an uptrend for the past five years. As the U.S. dollar has been in a bull market since 2011, short-circuiting the commodity super cycle, consumer staples manufacturers have been beneficiaries of falling commodity input costs. The implication is that profit margins have been expanding due to both rising pricing power and lower input costs (Chart 14). Chart 13Consumer Staples Chart 14Consumer Staples Telecom Services (Overweight - High Conviction) Relative telecom services performance and inflation appear broadly inversely correlated since the early 1970s, underperforming 60% of the time when core PCE prices accelerate. Importantly, in two of the periods we studied (during the late-70s and the TMT bubble) the drawdowns were massive, skewing the mean results portrayed in Table 1 on page 2. This fixed income proxy sector tends to suffer in times of inflation as competing assets dilute its yield appeal and vice versa (Chart 15). Telecom services pricing power has been declining over time as the government deregulated this once monopolistic industry. As more entrants forayed into the sector boosting competition, pricing power erosion accelerated. While relative sector pricing power has been mostly mired in deflation with a few rare expansionary spurts, there is an offset as the industry has entered a less volatile selling price backdrop: communications equipment costs are also constantly sinking (they represent a major input cost), counterbalancing the industry's profit margin outlook (Chart 16). Chart 15Telecom Services Chart 16Telecom Services Consumer Discretionary (Overweight) While the overall trend in consumer discretionary stocks has been higher since the mid-1970s, relative performance mostly declines during inflationary times. Consumer spending takes the backseat as a performance driver when interest rates rise on the back of higher inflation. In addition, previous inflationary periods have also coincided with surging energy prices, representing another source of diminishing consumer discretionary purchasing power (Chart 17). Consumer discretionary selling prices are expanding relative to overall wholesale price inflation, but they have been losing some steam of late. Were energy prices to sustain their recent cyclical advance, as BCA's Commodity & Energy Strategy service expects, that would represent a minor headwind to discretionary outlays. True, the tightening in monetary conditions could also be a risk, but we doubt the Yellen-led Fed would slam on the brakes at a time when the greenback is close to 15 year highs. The latter continues to suppress import prices and act as a tailwind to consumer spending and more than offsetting the energy and interest rate headwinds (Chart 18). Chart 17Consumer Discretionary Chart 18Consumer Discretionary Real Estate (Overweight) REITs have been outperforming the overall market during the five inflationary periods we analyzed, exemplifying their hard asset profile. While the 1976-81 iteration skewed the mean results, REITs still come out with the third best showing among the top eleven sectors even on median return basis (see Table 1 on page 2). Real estate prices tend to appreciate when inflation is accelerating, because landlords have consistently raised rents at least on a par with inflation (Chart 19). REITs pricing power has outpaced overall CPI. Apartment REITs rental inflation has been on a tear since the GFC, and the multi-family construction boom will eventually act as a restraint. The selloff in the bond market represents another risk to REITs relative returns as this index falls under the fixed income proxied equity basket, but the sector is now attractively valued (Chart 20). Chart 19Real Estate Chart 20Real Estate Energy (Neutral) The energy sector comes out on top of the median relative return results in times of inflation, and second best in average terms (Table 1 on page 2). Oil price surges are typically synonymous with other forms of inflation. During the six inflationary periods we analyzed, all but one period were associated with relative share price outperformance. Oil producers in particular benefit from the increase in the underlying commodity almost immediately (assuming little to no hedging), which also serves as an excellent inflation hedge (Chart 21). While relative energy pricing power had stabilized following the tumultuous GFC, Saudi Arabia's decision in late 2014 to refrain from balancing the oil market triggered a plunge in oil prices, similar to the mid-1980s collapse. The OPEC deal reached last week to curtail oil production should rebalance the market more quickly, assuming OPEC cheating will be limited, removing downside price risks. Nevertheless, any oil price acceleration to the $60/bbl level will likely prove self-limiting, as supply will come to the market and producers would rush to lock in prices by hedging forward (Chart 22). Chart 21Energy Chart 22Energy Financials (Neutral) Financials relative returns are neither hot nor cold when inflation rears its ugly head. In fact they sit in the middle of the pack in terms of relative median and mean returns. This lack of consistency reflects different factors that exerted significant influence in some of these inflationary periods. Moreover, Chart 23 shows that relative share prices have been mean reverting since the 1960s, likely blurring the inflation influence. Ultimately, the yield curve, credit growth and credit quality determine the path of least resistance for the relative share price ratio of this early cyclical sector. Financials sector pricing power has jumped by about 400bps over the past 18 months. Given the recent steepening of the yield curve, the odds are high that sector pricing power will remain firm via rising net interest margins. Any easing in the regulatory backdrop could also provide a fillip to margins (Chart 24). Chart 23Financials Chart 24Financials Utilities (Neutral) Utilities relative returns during inflationary bouts are the second worst among the top eleven sectors on an average basis and dead last on a median return basis. In five out of the six inflationary phases we examined, utilities stocks suffered a setback. The industry's lack of economic leverage and fixed income attributes anchor the relative share price ratio during inflationary times (Chart 25). Our utilities sector pricing power proxy has sprung to life recently moderately outpacing overall inflation. Natural gas prices, the industry's marginal price setter, have experienced a V-shaped recovery since the March trough, as excess inventories have been whittled down, signaling that recent pricing power gains have more upside. Nevertheless, the recent inflation driven jack up in interest rates has dealt a blow to this high dividend yielding defensive sector. Barring a sustained selloff in the bond market at least a technical rebound in relative share prices is looming (Chart 26). Chart 25Utilities Chart 26Utilities Tech (Underweight) Technology stocks have underperformed every time inflation has accelerated with two exceptions, in the mid-to-late 1960s and mid-to-late 1970s. Creative destruction forces in the tech industry are inherently deflationary. As a result, tech business models have evolved to thrive during disinflationary periods. Moreover, tech stocks have become more mature than typically perceived, having more stable cash flows and paying dividends. The implication is that the negative correlation with inflation will likely remain in place (Chart 27). Tech companies are constantly mired in deflation. While relative pricing power has been in an uptrend since 2011, it has recently relapsed into the deflationary zone. Worrisomely, deflation pressures are likely to intensify as the U.S. dollar appreciates, eating into the sector's earnings growth prospects. Finally, as a reminder, among the top eleven sectors tech stocks have the highest international sales exposure (Chart 28). Chart 27Tech Chart 28Tech Industrials (Underweight - High Conviction) The industrials sector tends to outperform during inflationary periods. In fact, relative share prices have risen 50% of the time since the mid-1960s when inflation was accelerating. The two oil shocks in the 1970s raised the profile of all commodity-related sectors as investors were scrambling to find reliable inflation hedges (Chart 29). Industrials pricing power is sinking steadily, weighed down by the multi-year commodity plunge on the back of China's economic growth deceleration, rising U.S. dollar and increasing supplies. While infrastructure spending is slated to increase at some point in late-2017 or early-2018, we doubt a lot of shovel ready projects will get off the ground quickly enough to satisfy the recent spike in expectations. We are in a wait and see period and remain skeptical that all this fiscal spending enthusiasm will translate into a sustainable earnings driven outperformance phase (Chart 30). Chart 29Industrials Chart 30Industrials Materials (Underweight) Materials equities have a tight positive correlation with accelerating inflation. Resource-related stocks are the closest representation of hard assets, given their ability to store value among the eleven GICS1 sectors. As inflation takes root and commodity prices rise, materials sales and EPS growth get a boost with relative share prices following right behind (Chart 31). From peak-to-trough relative materials prices collapsed by over 35 percentage points and only recently have managed to stage a modest comeback. Our relative pricing power gauge is flirting with the zero line, but may not move much higher. Deleveraging has not even commenced in the emerging markets, and the soaring U.S. dollar is highly deflationary. It will be extremely difficult for materials prices to advance sustainably if EM financial stress intensifies, given the inevitable backlash onto regional economic growth (Chart 32). Chart 31Materials Chart 32Materials Appendix Chart A1 Chart A2 Chart A3 Chart A4 Chart A5 Chart A6

The sudden economic exuberance following the Trump election victory has caused a flight out of traditional safe havens that looks to have gone too far. For instance, consumer products stocks (household products, beverages and packaged food) are now trading below the broad market P/E multiple, in aggregate, on a trailing 12-month basis. The chart shows that forward relative returns have typically been very robust when the group trades at a discount to the market. What could go wrong? History shows that a period of stable and strong GDP growth can cause discounted valuations to persist. Pricing in such an outlook at this juncture is overly optimistic, given the unknown fallout from a strong U.S. dollar on the rest of the world, trade uncertainty, and potential financial strains in the heavily indebted corporate sector as a consequence of rising bond yields. Keep in mind that the consumer products has a positive correlation with the U.S. dollar (top panel). We would be buyers on recent share price weakness.

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Retail food stocks are deep into the buy zone. Deflating food costs augur well for profit margins in the coming quarters. Lift the financial sector to neutral, via the asset manager and investment bank indexes. Recent Changes S&P Financials Sector - Raise to neutral, recording a loss of 8%. S&P Asset Manager & Custody Bank Index - Raise to overweight from underweight, locking in a profit of 5%. S&P Investment Bank & Brokerage Index - Raise to neutral, recording a loss of 3%. Table 1Sector Performance Returns (%) Equity markets celebrated the surprise Republican U.S. election victory. Investors believe the regime shift will entail fiscal stimulus and a lifting in regulatory constraints that stir animal spirits and lift the economy out of its growth funk. The reality is that it is premature to make long-term assumptions. Meanwhile, the underlying fragility of the U.S. economic expansion will be tested in the coming quarters. Indeed, it is easy to envision a hit to business confidence, causing delays in decision making and investment, especially given Trump's anti-trade rhetoric and penchant for profligacy. Policy uncertainty and confidence have been reliable leading indicators for valuations, and slippage would put upward pressure on the Equity Risk Premium (Chart 1). It will be critical to monitor aggregate financial conditions. The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions index has tentatively edged up (Chart 1), and if corporate bond spreads, long-term yields and the U.S. dollar move much higher, upside risks will intensify. The low level of overall potential growth has made the economy increasingly sensitive to swings in financial conditions and deflationary impulses from abroad. Both the high yield and investment-grade corporate bond index are languishing, perhaps picking up on the deflationary signal from U.S. dollar strength and growth drag from higher Treasury yields (Chart 2, bottom panel). It is notable that emerging markets currencies have pulled back. These exchange rates are typically pro-cyclical. Sustained currency weakness typically leads to domestic corporate bond spread widening (Chart 2, CDX spreads shown inverted). In the past five years, it has paid to bet on defensive over cyclical sectors when EM currencies weaken and CDX spreads are this tight, i.e. contrarians should take note. At a minimum, it may be a signal that global growth is less robust than the rise in global bond yields implies. As a result, forecasts for double-digit profit growth in the next twelve months look very aggressive, even if our economic outlook proves too cautious. The tentative trough in third quarter S&P 500 profits has not yet been validated by other indicators. For example, tracking tax revenue provides a good real-time gauge on corporate sector cash flows. Federal income tax receipts have dropped into negative territory. Corporate income taxes are contracting. Previous major and sustainable overall profit recoveries have been either led by, or coincident with, corporate income tax growth (Chart 3). This argues against extrapolating positive third quarter earnings growth in the S&P 500. Chart 1Watch Confidence And Financial Conditions Chart 2Don't Get Caught Up In The Hype Chart 3Taxes And Profits Rather than get overly excited about the potential for a new fiscal spending impulse, it may be more appropriate to view the latter as truncating downside economic risks, given that the corporate sector remains a key headwind to stronger growth, even excluding its balance sheet stress. Consequently, we still expect undervalued defensives to retake a leadership role from overvalued cyclical sectors and we also retain a domestic vs. global bias. If the U.S. dollar breaks above its recent trading range, the odds of the broad market making further liquidity fueled gains will diminish significantly. Importantly, the last few days of market moves have been massively exaggerated, as industrials and materials have rallied as if fiscal stimulus is about to hit next month. Even when implemented, it is not a panacea for sector earnings. Drug and biotech stocks have soared as if pricing pressures will evaporate, when in reality price pressures emerged prior to any political interference. Tech stocks have been crushed because of fears they will be forced to move production back to the U.S. All of these knee-jerk reactions should be treated with caution, with the exception of financials, where a step function reduction in the risk premium may be underway. There Is A New Sheriff In Town: Lift Financials To Neutral Financials have celebrated the modest upshift in the interest rate structure and hopes for a reversal of the regulatory framework that has been a structural noose on profitability, and risk premiums. These factors, along with our domestic vs. global bias, argue against maintaining a below benchmark weighting on a tactical basis. As discussed last week, our view on banks remains cautious, however, asset managers and investment banks have lower odds of falling back toward recent lows even after election euphoria inevitably fades. The largest earnings drags from the past year have eased. M&A activity has troughed. New and secondary stock offerings have hooked back up and margin debt is back to new highs, suggesting that investor risk appetites have stopped shrinking (Chart 4). Thus, capital formation is unlikely to dry up, even if upside is limited given poor corporate sector balance sheet health and an upward creep in the cost of capital. In terms of asset managers and custody banks (AMCB), even modestly higher interest rates would reduce a major profit impediment. Fees on funds held in trust have been decimated by ZIRP, underscoring that the latest uptick in short-term Treasury yields is a plus. Relative performance had already diverged negatively from the stock-to-bond ratio, the equity risk premium and global economic sentiment (Chart 5). This gap could close with a prospective thawing in relations between lawmakers and the industry. There is still structural downward pressure on fees as low cost ETFs gain market share, but that is being partially offset by the renewed growth in total mutual fund assets (Chart 4, bottom panel). Bear in mind that both groups tend to do well when the stocks outperform bonds, as seems likely in the near run given creeping protectionism. In sum, despite our concerns about overall financial sector productivity growth, mainly owing to rising bank cost structures, and the risks of a renewed deflationary impulse from U.S. dollar strength, we are lifting sector weightings to neutral. This will put us onside with the objective message from our Cyclical Macro Indicator, the buy signal from our Technical Indicator (Chart 6) and our broader theme of favoring domestic vs. global industries. Chart 4Earnings Drivers Have Stabilized Chart 5Recovery Candidate Chart 6Following Our Indicators Bottom Line: The Republican victory has provided a fillip to the financials sector, and underweight positions putting underweight positions offside. We are lifting allocations to neutral, via the S&P AMCB and S&P investment banks & brokerage indexes. AMCB moves to overweight, and the latter to neutral, with an eye to downgrading again once euphoria fades and investor focus returns to economic durability. Food Retailers: Too Cheap To Overlook Food retailers offer attractive value, defensive and domestic equity exposure with the potential for upside profit surprises. This group will benefit if U.S. wage inflation persists. The latter would boost consumer purchasing power and could lead to tighter financial conditions, either through U.S. dollar strength and/or a tighter Fed. The defensive appeal of retail food equities would shine through under that scenario. The starting point for grocery stocks is extremely appealing. The price ratio is extraordinarily oversold. It fell farther below its 200-day moving average than at any time since 2002, before recently bouncing (Chart 7). Valuations are cheap, return on equity is solid and share prices have diverged negatively from a number of macro indicators. For instance, relative performance has been tightly linked with the U.S. dollar, but the former plunged even as the currency firmed (Chart 8, top panel). A strong exchange rate will keep a lid on imported food costs, boost the allure of domestically-oriented industries while lifting consumer spending power. Chart 7Extraordinarily Oversold Chart 8Top-Line Improvement Ahead Outlays on food products have climbed as a share of total spending in the past six months, reversing a long-term downtrend (Chart 8). If consumer confidence stays firm as a consequence of rising wage growth and a positive wealth effect, then it is conceivable that store traffic and total grocery spending will accelerate. The surge in capital spending in recent years reflects store upgrades and a refreshed shopping experience, which could also translate into faster sales growth. Now that capital spending growth is cooling, it will reduce a profit margin drag. Profitability should also benefit from cost deflation. The food manufacturing PPI is contracting, reflecting shrinking raw food prices (Chart 9, top panel, shown inverted). It is normal for food stocks to outperform when raw food prices fall. Importantly, capacity utilization rates in the packaged food industry are very low (Chart 9), which augurs well for ongoing pricing pressure among suppliers. Tack on deflation in industry wage inflation, and it is no wonder profit margins have been able to grind back toward previous highs without a strong sales impulse. If sales rebound, as seems likely given evidence of market share gains away from hypermarkets (Chart 10, bottom panel), then grocery stores should continue to demonstrate decent pricing power gains (Chart 10, middle panel). Chart 9Cost Deflation Chart 10Gaining Market Share Adding it up, the ingredients for a powerful rally in the S&P retail food store index exist, with good downside protection should the economy disappoint on the back of tighter financial conditions. Bottom Line: We recommend an overweight position in the S&P retail food store index (BLBG: S5FDRE - KR, WFM). Current Recommendations Current Trades Size And Style Views Favor small over large caps and growth over value.

Special Report

Highlights Lesson 1: Don't fear the end of the debt super cycle. Lesson 2: The ECB will ultimately target the long-term bond yield. Lesson 3: Financials will structurally underperform. Lesson 4: Personal Products (Beauty) will structurally outperform. Feature Striking similarities exist between the post debt super cycle economies in the euro area and Japan. Feature ChartPersonal Products Will Outperform Structurally... Financials Will Not In many regards, the euro area looks remarkably like Japan with a 17 year lag. Line up the 2007 peak in the euro area credit boom with the 1990 peak in the Japan credit boom - and the subsequent evolutions of many economic and financial metrics also line up almost perfectly: for example, the policy interest rate; the 10-year bond yield; inflation; and nominal GDP (Chart I-2, Chart I-3, Chart I-4, Chart I-5). Chart 2Striking Similarities Between The Euro Area... Chart 3...And Japan, Advanced By 17 Years Chart I-4Striking Similarities Between The Euro Area... Chart I-5...And Japan, Advanced By 17 Years This is very useful because if the euro area continues in Japan's footsteps, Japan's experience can teach us several important lessons about the euro area economy and financial markets out to the year 2034. Lesson 1: Don't Fear The End Of The Debt Super Cycle Does the euro area economy have "lost decades" ahead of it? Not exactly. Japan's so-called lost decades describe its stagnant nominal GDP since the mid-1990s. But this emphasis on nominal income is misleading (Chart I-6). The average citizen's standard of living does not depend on nominal GDP or even on real GDP. What truly matters is real GDP per head combined with the absence of extreme income inequality. Real incomes must grow and the growth must be reasonably distributed across society. On both counts, the euro area can be encouraged by Japan's experience. Since the late 1990s, Japan's real GDP per head has averaged close to 1% growth a year, broadly in line with the expected real productivity growth in a developed economy. This is exactly the real growth rate to be expected when there is no artificial and unsustainable tailwind from credit expansion. It is an economy's natural state of growth when the debt super cycle comes to an end, as it did in Japan more than 20 years ago.1 And it is good growth because it comes entirely from productivity improvements. Mankind's persistent ability to learn, experiment, and innovate produces more and/or better output from a fixed set of inputs. Furthermore, unlike other major economies, income inequality in Japan has not increased through the past 20 years and remains amongst the lowest in the developed world (Chart I-7). Again, this is not surprising. It is credit expansions that inflate bubbles in financial assets and exacerbate income and wealth inequalities. Therefore, unlike bad growth fuelled by credit booms, real growth that comes from productivity improvements is sustainable and unpolarising. The first lesson from Japan is that the euro area can expect structural growth in real GDP per head of around 1% a year. Chart I-6What ##br##"Lost Decades"? Chart I-7Income Inequality In Japan ##br##Has Not Increased Lesson 2: The ECB Will Ultimately Target The Long-Term Bond Yield One objection to Lesson 1 is that in a highly indebted economy, nominal GDP growth does matter. As debt is a nominal amount, it is nominal incomes that determine the ability to service and repay the high level of debt. So given a free choice, policymakers would prefer to have inflation at 2% or 4% rather than at -1%; and nominal GDP growth at 3% or 5% rather than zero. Unfortunately, policymakers do not have this free choice. Contrary to what central bankers promise, inflation and nominal GDP growth cannot be dialled up or down at will to hit a point-target. As we explained in The Case Against Helicopters,2 inflation is a notoriously non-linear phenomenon which is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to control. As a reminder, look at the standard identity of monetary economics: MV = PT M is the broad money supply, V is its velocity of circulation, P is the price level and T is the volume of transactions. PT is effectively nominal GDP. The big problem is that both the broad money supply M and its velocity V - whose product determines nominal GDP - are highly non-linear. M is non-linear because the commercial banking system money multiplier - the ratio of loans to reserves - is non-linear (Chart I-8). At a tipping point of inflation, the onus suddenly flips from lending as little as possible to lending as much as possible. Chart I-8The Money Multiplier Is Non-Linear Admittedly, the central bank (in cahoots with the government) could by-pass the commercial banking system to control the money supply M directly. But it can do nothing to change the extreme non-linearity of the other driver of nominal GDP, the velocity of money V. Again, at a tipping point of inflation, the onus suddenly flips to spending money - both newly created and pre-existing balances - as fast as possible. At which point, nominal GDP growth and inflation suddenly and uncontrollably phase-shift from ice to fire with little in between. Therefore in the highly indebted euro area economy with near-zero inflation, the prudent course of action is not to risk uncontrolled inflation with so-called "helicopter money". Instead, the second lesson from Japan is to expect the ECB ultimately to emulate the BoJ and target the long-term bond yield. But which bond yield? Most likely, it would be the euro area synthetic 10-year yield, which the ECB already calculates and publishes, or a close proxy. In combination with the ECB's (as yet unused) OMT program - whose mere presence limits individual sovereign yield spreads - expect euro area government bond yields to remain structurally well anchored. Lesson 3: Financials Will Structurally Underperform Japanese financial sector profits today stand at less than half their level in 1990. For euro area financial sector profits, the concerning thing is that their evolution is tracking the Japanese experience with a 17 year lag. If euro area financial profits continue to follow in Japan's footsteps, expect no sustained growth over the next 17 years (Chart I-9). Chart I-9Euro Area Financial Profits May Experience No Sustained Growth In a post debt super cycle world, banks lose the lifeblood of their business: credit creation. And this becomes a multi-decade headwind to financial sector profit growth and share price performance. Euro area financials face two other headwinds similar to those in post debt super cycle Japan. As explained in Lesson 2, high indebtedness makes the economy hyper-sensitive to rising bond yields. The upshot is that the interest rate term-structure, which drives banks' net lending margins, cannot sustainably steepen. Also, just like Japan's 'zombie' banks, many European banks will take a long time to fully recognise the extent of their non-performing loans. The consequent squeeze on new lending combined with a requirement for additional capital further weighs down banks' return on equity. So the third lesson from Japan is that euro area financials is not a sector to buy and hold for the long term. Rather, it is a sector to play for periodic strong countertrend rallies. Now is not the time for such a play. Lesson 4: Personal Products (Beauty) Will Structurally Outperform Over the past 20 years, Japan's nominal GDP has gone sideways. But over this same period, the sales of skin cosmetics and beauty products have almost tripled (Chart I-10). This has helped the personal products sector to outperform very strongly. While Japanese financial profits have halved since 1990, Japanese personal products profits have quintupled (Feature Chart). Once again, the useful thing is that euro area personal product profits are uncannily tracking the Japanese experience with a 17 year lag. If euro area personal product profits continue to follow in Japan's footsteps, expect them to almost triple over the next 17 years (Chart I-11). Chart I-10Beauty Sales Have Boomed In Japan Chart I-11Euro Area Personal Products Profits Might Triple The very strong growth in beauty sales and profits in Japan is an extended example of the phenomenon known as the lipstick effect. Our Special Report Buy Beauty: The Lipstick Effect Stays Put3 provides the detail. But in a nutshell, the demand for beauty products and cosmetics - epitomised by lipstick - experiences a surge when the economic environment feels harsh. For many people, the post debt super cycle world of 1% real income growth with high indebtedness and no more bingeing on credit does feel like an extended hangover - at least compared to the spendthrift era that preceded it. Hence, it creates the ideal backdrop for an extended play of the lipstick effect, as witnessed in Japan. The fourth lesson from Japan is that euro area personal products is a sector to buy and hold for the long term. Expect profits to trend up at around 6% a year, and the sector to strongly outperform the broader market. Dhaval Joshi, Senior Vice President European Investment Strategy dhaval@bcaresearch.com 1 Admittedly, after the debt super cycle ended in Japan, government levering was needed to counter the impact of aggressive de-levering in the private sector. But in the euro area, this will not be needed to the same extent as the de-levering in the private sector is not as aggressive. 2 Please see the European Investment Strategy Weekly Report 'The Case Against Helicopters' published on May 5, 2016, available at eis.bcaresearch.com 3 Please see the European Investment Strategy Special Report 'Buy Beauty: The Lipstick Effect Stays Put' published on April 14, 2016, available at eis.bcaresearch.com Fractal Trading Model This week's recommended trade is to go short French banks versus the CAC40. For any investment, excessive trend following and groupthink can reach a natural point of instability, at which point the established trend is highly likely to break down with or without an external catalyst. An early warning sign is the investment's fractal dimension approaching its natural lower bound. Encouragingly, this trigger has consistently identified countertrend moves of various magnitudes across all asset classes. * For more details please see the European Investment Strategy Special Report "Fractals, Liquidity & A Trading Model," dated December 11, 2014, available at eis.bcaresearch.com The post-June 9, 2016 fractal trading model rules are: When the fractal dimension approaches the lower limit after an investment has been in an established trend it is a potential trigger for a liquidity-triggered trend reversal. Therefore, open a countertrend position. The profit target is a one-third reversal of the preceding 13-week move. Apply a symmetrical stop-loss. Close the position at the profit target or stop-loss. Otherwise close the position after 13 weeks. Use the position size multiple to control risk. The position size will be smaller for more risky positions. Fractal Trading Model Recommendations Equities Bond & Interest Rates Currency & Other Positions Closed Fractal Trades Trades Closed Trades Asset Performance Currency & Bond Equity Sector Country Equity Indicators Bond Yields Chart II-1Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-2Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-3Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Chart II-4Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Interest Rate Chart II-5Indicators To Watch - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-6Indicators To Watch - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-7Indicators To Watch - Interest Rate Expectations Chart II-8Indicators To Watch - Interest Rate Expectations

Consumer product stocks have had a tough few weeks, as renewed strength in the U.S. dollar threatens to undermine sales prospects. However, there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic, especially in relative terms. Consumption has a lower economic beta than capital spending, particularly among consumer staples vendors. Consumer goods exports have started to rebound, even prior to renewed strength in emerging market currencies. The latter heralds at least a mild recovery in consumer product top-line growth. Domestically, retail sales at non-discretionary stores are outpacing sales at discretionary stores by a wide margin, another indication that in relative terms, profit conditions favor non-cyclical consumer goods vendors. We are overweight the S&P household products and S&P soft drink indexes.

Consumer products stocks are likely to move to an even larger valuation premium before the cyclical outperformance phase ends.

Drug retail relative valuations have divorced from bullish indicators of top and bottom-line performance. Retail sales momentum continues to accelerate. The ongoing hospital hiring frenzy is indicative of rising procedures, and provides a good indication for future prescription drug demand, and thus pharmacy retail sales. Importantly, drug retailers are gaining market share from hypermarkets (third panel), underscoring that they will receive a disproportionate share of rising store traffic. From a contrarian perspective, there appears to be little buy in to a positive sales view, given that analysts have pared back relative sales growth expectations (fourth panel). Meanwhile, investors have attached a massive risk premium to the group (bottom panel). There is room for both profit and multiple expansion, and we reiterate a high-conviction overweight. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5DRUG - CVS, WBA.

The S&P retail drug store index has been undermined by concerns about the opaque pricing structure of its pharmacy benefits management arms, which has pushed relative valuations to extremely attractive levels. While it is difficult to forecast whether any major concessions will be made to appease health insurers, this focus is masking an increasingly upbeat picture for the rest of the core business. Consumers are allocating a record share of their spending to pharmacy-related items, continuing a trend in place for more than two decades. It is rare for relative performance to deviate from relative spending trends for long, as the latter provides a clear indication of the industry's ability to deliver better-than-market profitability. Importantly, drug retailers have retrenched in recent years, paving the way for solid same-store sales growth. Shorter-term performance indicators are even more upbeat, please see the next Insight. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5DRUG - CVS, WBA.