Financials stocks have taken it on the chin, reflecting the unwinding of the 'Trump Trade' following the Administration's inability to tackle health care reform. As a result, the financials sector is reverting from hopes for…
Highlights The uptrend in consumer confidence has the potential to be lasting, and therefore lead to an acceleration in real consumption over the next several quarters. In contrast, the rise in business optimism is thus far built on…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy A battle between tighter monetary conditions and the anticipation of fiscal largesse will be a dominant market theme this year. Our high-conviction equity allocation calls do not require making a major…
The previous Insight showed that businesses remain a weak link for the banking sector, as C&I loan demand has cooled and the corporate sector is the primary source of credit quality concerns following the multi-year credit binge. As…
While the corporate sector has run up debt levels and is struggling to generate profit growth, consumers have rebuilt their savings and are enjoying the benefits of a positive wealth effect. The increase in real wage and salaries growth…
Yesterday we showed an Insight with financial sector relative performance and the yield curve, with the message that the sector's more defensive components outperform while the curve is flattening, as is currently the case. We view…
With the broad market poking above the top end of its long-term trading range, investors may be on the lookout for sectors and groups that will benefit from improving market sentiment. While the financial sector has been pounded in the…
In March we recommended doubling down on our overweight S&P consumer finance index call, because company-specific factors had caused relative performance to undershoot the bulk of our macro indicators. Since then, the share price…
Last month, we highlighted that the S&P consumer finance index had far undershot bullish readings from our macro indicators, reflecting company specific issues. As the latter fade into the rearview mirror, relative performance…
Both the demand for and availability of capital favors consumers over businesses, on the margin. The latest Fed senior loan officer survey showed that banks are tightening standards on C&I loans, the most rapidly growing component…