This is the time of the year when strategists are busy sending out their annual outlooks. Here on the Global Investment Strategy team, we decided to go one step further. Rather than pontificating about what could happen in 2025, we…
The turmoil in US regional banks will weigh on economic growth. Arguably, it would be better for the broader stock market if growth slowed because banks became more conservative in their lending than if it slowed because the Fed had…
Overweight The S&P consumer finance index, much like their larger financials peers in the S&P banks index, have mostly not participated in the rise in Treasury yields, a relationship that has heretofore been relatively tight (…
Overweight Consumer finance stocks have been mostly range-bound over the past two years following their significant underperformance in the two years prior. We think the trading range is only a pause as the sector girds itself for…
Fed data released this week showed consumer credit growth surging at close to its fastest pace since the turn of the century, driven in large part by exceptional growth in revolving consumer credit (second panel). The…
Overweight Anecdotal evidence of a strong recovery in holiday shopping, not least of which is Amazon's guidance of 28-38% growth in the December quarter, should see retailers in festive moods. However, with online sales set to…
A recovery in asset values, employment and savings over the past eight years has taken household net worth steadily higher; it now exceeds pre-GFC levels. Historically, household net worth and the consumer finance index have moved hand-…
Overweight This year has proven a tough one for the consumer finance index, a result of the hangover following the Trump election ebullience. However, the path has been generally upward since the post-Q1 trough; we expect more of the…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Upgrade capital markets stocks to overweight and put them on the high-conviction list. Capital formation is poised to accelerate in the second half of the year. Our Indicators suggest that demand for…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy A window has opened up for utilities outperformance. Upgrade to overweight on a short-term (1-3 month) view. Leading indicators of beverage sales have improved, heralding an upgrading in depressed…