Consumer Discretionary

Three strategies that could win whatever the outcome of Britain's referendum on EU membership. And what to look out for in the final days before the vote.

The overall retailing sector is still struggling with aggressive price discounting, as the retail price deflator hit its lowest level since the 1990s. Consumers have a high propensity to save, which is making it difficult for traditional retailers to manage and budget. The contraction in…

Media stocks have been through a choppy consolidation phase in recent years, as investors digest competitive threats and changing consumption habits. However, evidence is materializing that media companies are through the worst. Specifically, value has been restored to the S&P movies &…

This week's report discusses whether bad news is good news for stocks, or a potential restraint. Tumbling long-term yields argue for augmenting consumer discretionary sector weightings, <i>via</i> the movies & entertainment group.

The previous Insight showed that the S&P hotel index was in a sustained downtrend, with bearish technical and valuation indications for future relative performance trends. Fundamental forces also argue for caution. Consumer spending growth at hotels is cooling in absolute terms, and plunging…

Despite whiffs of optimism regarding U.S. consumption trends, S&P hotel index relative performance is in a bear market. The share price ratio is well below its 40-week moving average, which itself is drifting lower, and cyclical momentum is contracting, as measured by the 52-week rate of…

The housing market remains a bright spot within the U.S. economy, which is not yet fully reflected in relative share performance. For instance, the NAHB survey has massively outperformed the ISM composite, signaling that relative profit conditions are more favorable for housing (top panel). The…

Chinese housing construction does not look excessive relative to the size of its rapidly growing urban population. On average, China's new urban construction has been about 500 units per 1000 new urban citizens in the past 10 years, roughly comparable to other countries, and is much smaller than Korea and Japan during the prime stage of their urbanization process.

This week <i>U.S. Equity Strategy</i> is sending you the latest <i>BCA Special Report</i>, where Mark McClellan and Anastasios Avgeriou tackle the questions of "Global Earnings Recession: How Deep? How Long?"

Earnings-per-share (EPS) for the MSCI all-country world index are estimated to have fallen by 7% in the year to March, the fourth quarter in a row of annual decline. The length and depth of the profits recession is key to the appropriate equity allocation, especially given that stocks are not…