Consumer Discretionary
Underweight Carnival Corp, the largest cruise line operator, saw its share price plunge Monday after it dropped its earnings guidance range to absorb the impact of rapidly rising fuel costs. This share price drubbing dragged the other cruise line operators and the overall index down with it;…
Neutral The specter of Netflix, as well as other tech giants circling the space, has accelerated an inter- and intra-industry consolidation (second panel). We were well positioned for this shake up in the space as we went underweight the media complex in early March. But now, we deem that the…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Selling in the S&P cable & satellite index is overdone. Recession type valuations fully reflect the acquirer discount heavyweight CMCSA is still commanding. Lift exposure to neutral. Content providers' assets are highly coveted, and these firms remain in…
Underweight (Upgrade Alert) The narrative for the S&P cable & satellite index this year has been an ongoing (and accelerating) loss of share of the consumer's wallet (second panel) as over-the-top providers continue to steal customers. The subscriber losses in the industry are perhaps…
Neutral In yesterday's Weekly Report, we pulled the trigger on our upgrade watch for the niche S&P homebuilding index,1 monetizing our 24% relative gains since the late-November 2017 inception. Three main reasons underpin our upgrade to a benchmark allocation: 1. Bond market selloff taking…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy A near-term pullback in U.S. Treasury yields, still robust housing fundamentals and compelling valuations that reflect most, if not all, of the bad homebuilding news and offset thorny input cost inflation, entice us to lift the S&P homebuilding index to…
Neutral - Downgrade Alert The National Restaurant Association's Restaurant Performance Index (RPI), a measure of the industry's outlook, has spent most of the past decade above 100, indicating industry expansion (second panel). However, this has not translated into restaurant stock…
Underweight - Upgrade Alert Homebuilders took another beating this week, and it seems as if they cannot catch a break. While the latest NAHB sentiment survey reflected homebuilder optimism, survey participants acknowledged that spiking building material costs are now hurting profitability (…
There is scant evidence that the character of the equity market advance is changing and the fact that weak balance sheet stocks are no longer outperforming strong balance sheet stocks is giving us pause (Chart 1). Chart 1Time To Pause And Reflect…
Underweight The S&P cable & satellite index was under intense pressure last week as the quarterly release of subscriber churn numbers for the constituent companies came out worse than expected. In particular, CHTR saw its stock fall by nearly 12% when it reported a subscriber loss…