Consumer Discretionary

  Restaurants - Dine And Dash…

Feature Asset Allocation Amid Late-Cycle Turbulence BCA today published its 2019 Outlook, Late-Cycle Turbulence,1 our annual discussion with long-time clients Mr X and his daughter, Ms X. Recommendations Monthly Portfolio Update…

Highlights U.S. housing's immediate past will not repeat, ... : It is understandable that investors who lived through the financial crisis are acutely sensitive to any sign of trouble in housing, but none of the factors that helped precipitate the crisis are in place now. ... and its older…

Highlights Chinese pro-consumption policy stimulus will likely stabilize Chinese household consumption growth at 8-10% over the next 12-15 months, with service consumption continuing to be the key driver. Our research shows that Chinese nominal retail sales of consumer goods are currently…

Neutral When we downgraded the S&P home improvement retail index (HIR) to neutral in September, the core of our thesis was that fixed residential investment as a percentage of GDP appeared to have peaked, up 50% from trough to the recent highs, whereas relative HIR performance is up 170% in…

Despite a stellar Q3 earnings print, the S&P 500 had a terrible October as EPS continues to do the hard work in lifting the market (Chart 1). Chart 1EPS Doing The Heavy Lifting EPS Doing The Heavy Lifting…

Underweight Marriott International, the hotel heavyweight of the S&P hotels, resorts and cruise lines index reported results on Monday and the company's outlook was grim, calling for revenue growth below analyst forecasts on the back of higher room growth. This is confirmed by our leading…

Underweight While we remain constructive on financials that benefit from higher rates, we continue to recommend investors avoid the consumer discretionary sector - the other early cyclical - that suffers when interest rates rise. The second panel of our chart depicts this inverse correlation…