Highlights Clients countered our opinion that China’s economy has reached its cyclical peak. However, we have already incorporated the supporting facts into our analysis so they will not alter our cyclical outlook for the economy…
Highlights Higher copper prices will follow in the wake of China's surge in steel demand, which lifted Shanghai steel futures to an all-time high just under 5,200 RMB/MT earlier this month, as building and infrastructure projects…
Highlights President Biden’s $2.4 trillion “American Jobs Plan” is a major US public investment that will dispel any endogenous deflationary tail risk from the US economy this cycle, increase inflation expectations…
The BCA Research Global Asset Allocation (GAA) Forum will take place online on May 18th. We have put together a great lineup of speakers to discuss issues of importance to CIOs and asset allocators. These include the latest thinking…
While the Fed’s dots dovishly surprised, the FOMC’s output and inflation projections were on the hawkish side. Adding the committee’s core PCE price inflation estimate for 2021 to their real GDP forecast results in a…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Firming leading rail freight indicators signal that intermodal, coal and commodity (ex-coal) carloads are in high demand. Tack on the global economic reopening in the back half of the year and rising…
Neutral Our 5% rolling stop in the S&P automobiles & components was triggered intraday yesterday on the back of the slipping 10-year Treasury yield, forcing us to crystalize 29% in relative gains and move this early…
Our Tesla-dominated S&P automobiles & components underweight is currently on fire (no pun intended) generating 34% in relative returns in just over a month. While our original rationale for the underweight exposure in…
Underweight Recently we highlighted how the inclusion of TSLA in the S&P consumer discretionary sector catapulted the sector’s 5-year growth forecasts to the stratosphere. We also mentioned anecdotes of sell-side analysts…