Highlights Sweden Yield Curve: The drivers behind our Sweden 5-year/10-year curve flattener trade - a Riksbank stance that appeared too dovish, a cautious global risk landscape and the strength of Sweden's economic expansion - have…

Highlights A poor fundamental backdrop for high yield is being offset by easy monetary conditions. A prolonged shallow uptrend in corporate defaults - and therefore spreads - is most likely. The relative performance of equities versus…

Highlights ECB Monetary Policy: Euro Area inflation will likely remain below the European Central Bank (ECB) 2% target for the next few years due to persistent excess capacity in Europe. The ECB will signal this at the December…

Highlights Duration: Treasury yields will continue to rise as a December Fed rate hike is priced in. A surge in bullish dollar sentiment between now and December would cause us to back away from our below-benchmark duration stance.…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Boost restaurant stocks to neutral, as same-store sales should improve next year. A further upgrade requires evidence of top-line traction. The exodus from health care stocks represents an overreaction…

Highlights The path of the least resistance for the U.S. dollar is up; this has far-reaching implications for monetary policy, global growth dynamics and asset prices. Dollar strength reinforces our view to overweight defensives vs.…

Highlights The U.S. is not yet a "high-pressure" economy, but slack is dissipating. U.S. growth, while not torrid, will remain high enough to push interest rates higher. The euro area continues to exhibit tepid domestic…

Special Report

Highlights Muni Credit Cycle: The reading from our Municipal Health Monitor supports low Muni/Treasury yield ratios for now, but will become less supportive near the end of 2017. This is consistent with historical lags between the muni…

Highlights Our protector portfolio is a combination of assets that have a low or negative correlation with equities that give investors some downside protection. Replacing cash and/or Treasuries with our protector portfolio in 60-30-…

Highlights Recent U.S. economic data have surprised to the upside, raising the odds of a December rate hike. U.S. GDP growth is likely to accelerate further in 2017 on the back of stronger business capex, a turn in the inventory cycle…