Feature The FX Market has a strange way of proving everyone wrong. Currently, we are finding ourselves uncomfortable with our cyclically bullish stance on the dollar as it has become a consensus view. A review of the rationale and…

Highlights Duration: Treasuries are now slightly expensive relative to global growth indicators, and the global economic recovery appears sustainable. Despite lingering concerns about policy uncertainty and bearish bond positioning, we…

Special Report

Feature For the first time since the beginning of the recovery in 2009, the U.S. economy has the potential - and is showing signs - of entering a self-reinforcing phase. After years of expecting that the next recession is just around…

Highlights U.S. policy uncertainty has increased again early in the New Year. President Trump's inaugural speech highlighted that he has not tempered his "America First" policy prescription. The Trump/GOP agenda is still…

Highlights The uptrend in consumer confidence has the potential to be lasting, and therefore lead to an acceleration in real consumption over the next several quarters. In contrast, the rise in business optimism is thus far built on…

Highlights The economy is near full employment, but betting on significant inflation is premature. Market-based inflation expectations have risen substantially in recent weeks but these moves are not corroborated by survey measures of…

Highlights After steep climbs in November and early December both bond yields and stock prices were overdue for a pause or correction. Although the domestic economy is on reasonably sound footing, stock prices have now discounted way…

Highlights Dear Clients, Please note that this will be our final Weekly Report for the year. We will resume our regular publishing schedule on January 3, 2017. The U.S. Investment Strategy team wishes you a restful holiday season and a…

Highlights The rise in both bond yields and the U.S. dollar represents significant tightening in monetary conditions, which will be difficult for stock prices to digest. Technical indicators suggest that the rally could persist in the…

Special Report

Highlights Huge short-term moves have occurred in several markets in the wake of the U.S. election. From a tactical perspective, we believe the moves have gone too far, too fast. Beyond the tactical, the key question is whether or not…