Highlights Rising equity prices, low and falling bond yields and stable credit spreads are all consistent with today's low growth and inflation backdrop, where the Fed can take its time raising rates. The FOMC is looking through…
Highlights Monetary Policy: The Fed will deliver two rate hikes between now and the end of the year and will also begin the process of winding down its balance sheet. The market is only priced for 36 bps of rate hikes this year. Maintain…
Highlights Politics will inject further volatility into risk assets, but stocks will outperform bonds and cash on a 6-12 month horizon. The health of the economy and earnings matter more than Trump's political woes for investors…
Highlights Fed: The Fed is likely to lift rates in June, which could roil markets if economic data do not improve between now and then. Municipal Bonds: Weak state & local government revenue growth reflects the fall-out from the…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Any advance in Treasury yields should be gradual and more reflective of an improving global economy than it would be restrictive for equities. Book profits in homebuilders and downgrade to neutral.…
Highlights The headwinds against commodity currencies are still brewing, the selloff is not over. Global liquidity conditions are deteriorating and EM growth will disappoint. The valuation cushion in commodity currencies and EM plays…
Highlights The locomotive of the U.S. economy, the consumer, remains supported by powerful tailwinds. The Fed will be able to tighten monetary policy relative to other central banks by a higher degree than the market appreciates. The…
Highlights Monetary Policy: Investors should fade the recent increase in expectations of a March rate hike. Still-low inflation and elevated policy uncertainty will keep the Fed on hold until June. Continue to position for a bear-…