Highlights Financial markets have experienced two weeks of wild swings: Following the negative 5-standard-deviation weekly move in the S&P 500 two weeks ago, the index moved at least 2.8% in each of last week’s first four…
Highlights The coronavirus is a wild card that may have a significant impact on the global economy, … : The COVID-19 outbreak is unfolding in real time, half a world away, and its ultimate course is uncertain. For now, our China…
Highlights Bulk commodity markets – chiefly iron ore and steel – could see sharp rallies once Chinese authorities give the all-clear on COVID-19 (the WHO’s official name for the coronavirus). These markets rallied…
Highlights The SARS episode of 2003 suggests that the panic over the coronavirus will only subside when the number of new cases peaks. Although the latest data is somewhat encouraging, it is far from clear that we have reached that…
With the exception of multi-family residential real estate, American real rents have fallen, revealing that low rates have propelled commercial properties’ price appreciation over the past decade. The combination of…
Highlights Global growth is poised to accelerate this year, although the spread of the coronavirus could dampen spending in the very short term. History suggests that the likelihood of a recession rises when unemployment falls to very…
An analysis on Brazil is available below. Feature Chart I-1Poor Performance By EM Stocks, Currencies And Commodities I had the pleasure of meeting again with a long-term BCA client Ms. Mea last week during my trip to Europe…
Highlights Monetary policy settings should continue to sustain the expansion,… : Tight monetary policy is a precondition for a recession. Although the line separating tight from easy is a matter of judgment, current Fed policy…