Highlights The cost of housing is the one item that has held up US inflation vis a vis European inflation in recent years. But as the cost of housing flips from being a strong tailwind to a strong headwind, US inflation is about to…
Highlights Historically, when global growth picks up, the yen weakens. But this is less likely in an environment where global yields remain anchored at low levels. Meanwhile, there is rising risk that consumption in Japan will remain…
Highlights If policymakers can neutralize default pressures arising from the lockdowns, the lasting impacts of this recession may not be so bad: As Jay Powell put it on 60 Minutes several weeks ago, policymakers just have to keep…
Dear Client, Next week we will be sending you a Special Report providing our insights on the much-anticipated China National People’s Congress. We think the messages sent from the conference will be highly relevant to both the…
Highlights The global economy will contract at its fastest pace since the early 1930s, but will not slump into a depression. Easy monetary conditions, an extremely expansive fiscal policy, and solid bank and household balance sheets…
Highlights Even as a net oil importer, China loses more than it gains when oil prices collapse. An oil price collapse generates a formidable deflationary force, which will further depress China’s industrial pricing power and…