Dear Client, We are sending you our Quarterly Strategy Outlook today, where we outline our thoughts on the macro landscape and the direction of financial markets for the rest of the year and beyond. We will also be hosting a webcast…

Highlights An uptick in COVID-19 infections and squabbling on Capitol Hill are making investors newly uneasy, … : A rising 7-day moving average of new virus infections and falling probability of new fiscal aid weighed heavily on…

Highlights Monetary Policy: The Fed will keep rates at the zero bound at least until inflation is above 2% and it will maintain an accommodative policy stance until long-dated TIPS breakeven inflation rates move above 2.3%. Remain…

Feature In last week’s US Bond Strategy report, we presented the results of a scenario analysis on consumer spending.1 The goal of that analysis was to assess how much additional federal government income support is required to…

Highlights Consumers are the beating heart of the US economy, … : By showering cash on the newly unemployed, and issuing checks to more than half of all taxpayers, the CARES Act arrested April’s free fall in consumption…

Highlights Lower-income Chinese households are overly indebted, while higher-income groups hold too much cash.  Apart from real estate and cash, ordinary Chinese people have few choices in allocating their assets. Household…

This report contains an error in the section related to consumer spending and fiscal policy. That error somewhat changes the conclusions from the report, and it particularly impacts Chart 3, Table 2 and Table 3. The attached note explains…

Highlights The ultimate extent of credit losses in this cycle is unknown, … : Conventional models are ill-equipped to project the damage that the pandemic will inflict on the economy when monetary and fiscal policymakers are…

Highlights US consumer spending will stall this summer in response to the rising number of Covid cases. Worries about the looming fiscal cliff could also dampen sentiment. Markets are likely to trade nervously over the coming days, but…

Dear Client, US Investment Strategy will take the first of two summer breaks next week, so there will be no publication on July 13th. We will return on July 20th with the latest installment of our Big Bank Beige Book, reviewing the five…