Consumer

We share our thoughts about some of the less-discussed topics that came up across three weeks of face-to-face discussions with investors. We retain our conviction that the American consumer’s demise has been greatly exaggerated, and it continues to underpin our constructive near-term view on the US economy.

This week’s <i>Global Investment Strategy</i> report titled Fourth Quarter 2022 Strategy Outlook: A Three-Act Play discusses the outlook for the global economy and financial markets for the rest of 2022 and beyond.

Executive Summary We hold to our view that households are in better shape than widely perceived, nourished by a robust labor market and a formidable supply of pandemic savings. We do not believe that the equity bear market will derail our base-case…

Executive Summary Turbulence remains the signal feature of 2022 as worries about inflation and the Fed’s reaction to it continue to haunt investors and plague financial markets. Despite four-decade highs in measured inflation, long-run inflation…

Dear client, We will not be publishing the US Equity Strategy next week, as I will be participating in BCA Investment Conference. We will return to our regular publishing schedule on September 19, 2022. Kind Regards, Irene Tunkel   Executive…

Executive Summary Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech did not change our fundamental take on the economy; we still think the expansion will survive through the first half of 2023 at a minimum. Financial markets’ reaction to Powell’s remarks highlighted…

Listen to a short summary of this report     Executive Summary On the eve of the pandemic, most developed economies were operating at close to full capacity – the aggregate supply curve, in other words, had become very steep (or inelastic…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Housing Activity Should Start To Stabilize By The End Of The Year Housing Activity Should Start To Stabilize By The End Of…

Highlights The odds of a Goldilocks outcome for the US economy increased somewhat in August, but the risks of a US recession over the coming year remain quite elevated. We continue to recommend that investors stay neutrally positioned towards equities…

Executive Summary We continue to recommend overweighting risk assets in multi-asset portfolios over the next six months because we believe financial markets have prematurely priced in too much pessimism. Against a particularly uncertain macroeconomic…