Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Housing Activity Should Start To Stabilize By The End Of The Year  Home prices in the US are set to decline, almost certainly in real terms and…

Highlights The odds of a Goldilocks outcome for the US economy increased somewhat in August, but the risks of a US recession over the coming year remain quite elevated. We continue to recommend that investors stay neutrally positioned…

Executive Summary We continue to recommend overweighting risk assets in multi-asset portfolios over the next six months because we believe financial markets have prematurely priced in too much pessimism. Against a particularly…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Euro Bulls Are Evaporating  The euro is likely to undershoot in the near term, as the winter months approach and economic volatility in Europe…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Chart 1The Dollar Has Broken Below The First Line Of Support  The softer CPI print in the US boosted growth plays and pushed the DXY index below…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Significant Savings Provide A Moat Around Consumers  Three mega moats will protect the US economy over the next 12 months: 1) A high number of job…

S&P 500 Chart 1Macroeconomic Backdrop  Chart 2Profitability  Chart 3Valuations And Technicals  Chart 4Uses Of Cash  Cyclicals Vs Defensives Chart 5Macroeconomic Backdrop  Chart…

Executive Summary The constructive economic view that has us at odds with the consensus rests on three premises: excess pandemic savings will allow consumption to grow at trend, despite inflation; inflation will soon peak, moving to…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Investors Are Pricing In A Much More Aggressive Tightening Cycle Than At The Start Of The Year  Following last week’s sharp post-FOMC rally…

Executive Summary Reporters at last week’s post-FOMC press conference were consumed by the prospect of a recession. Their questions about the economy echoed the analysts’ on bank earnings calls and Chair Powell’s…