Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2023. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and…
Airlines have staged an impressive recovery this year, exceeding all expectations. While companies are optimistic, we are cautious. Just as pent-up demand for travel will fade, headwinds from slowing growth and high inflation will…
The kinked supply framework helps explain why US inflation rose so suddenly shortly after the pandemic began and why the economy is likely to experience a benign disinflation over the next six months.
In this report we scrutinize the state of US consumer finances, which are a key driver of the Payment Processing Industry. We expect demand for services to pull back in the early 2023 on the back of still high inflation and tighter…
Financial markets slumped with the tough talk that followed last week’s FOMC meeting, but investors should recognize that the tone of the Fed’s communications is conditioned upon the inflation backdrop. Once it improves, Chair Powell…
As the FOMC explicitly acknowledged this week, monetary policy operates with substantial lags. We see the risks to stocks as tilted to the upside over the next 6 months but are neutral on global equities over a 12-month horizon.
Falling inflation will allow bond yields to decline in the major economies over the next few quarters. As such, we recommend that investors shift their duration stance from underweight to neutral over a 12 month-and-longer horizon…
The September CPI report was disappointing, but we still see several signs pointing to a rapid decline in inflation. Our constructive near-term view on stocks and the economy remains intact.